NewsLetter, Vol. 12, No. 6 – November 2019

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Harold Evensky CFP® , AIF® Chairman

DEAR READER,

 PERSPECTIVE

From Michael Batnick, of Ritholtz Wealth Management, via my friend Bob Veres.

Recently, the DOW fell 3% in one day. That was the 307th time the Dow has fallen 3% in a day over the last one hundred years.

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OSTRICH PLANNING

Almost Half of All Americans Fear They’ll Outlive Their Savings

 “This is actually a pretty big worry for many of us, with respondents to a recent survey by the financial services company Northwestern Mutual indicating that, on average, there’s a 45% chance they’ll outlive their savings. Yet despite fears about ending up a broke senior, 41% of respondents said they haven’t taken any steps to address this concern.

“There’s a very real chance many people won’t have enough money to support them through their later years—especially as the same survey found 22% of Americans have under $5,000 saved for retirement and 15% have nothing saved at all.”

Don’t let this be YOU!

https://www.fool.com/retirement/2019/09/08/almost-half-of-all-americans-fear-theyll-outlive-t.aspx

 

AND THE WINNER IS…

According to a recent Gallup poll, some 63% of American adults drink alcohol—and their favored beverage is beer. Some 42% of American drinkers prefer beer, compared to 34% who choose wine, and just 19% who enjoy spirits the most.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/09/14/how-much-beer-did-the-average-person-drink-in-every-state/40109241/

 

THE TEN BEST AND WORST

…states to retire in, according to WealthManagement who considered affordability, crime ranking, culture ranking, weather ranking, and wellness ranking:

BEST

  1. Nebraska
  2. Iowa
  3. Missouri
  4. South Dakota
  5. Florida
  6. Kentucky
  7. Kansas
  8. North Carolina
  9. Montana
  10. Hawaii

WORST

  1. Oregon
  2. Nevada
  3. Illinois
  4. Washington
  5. Maryland
  6. New York
  7. Alaska
  8. California
  9. New Jersey
  10. South Carolina

https://www.wealthmanagement.com/retirement-planning/10-best-and-10-worst-states-retire-2019/gallery?slide=13

 

NO END IN SIGHT?

Cost Of Employer-Provided Health Coverage Passes $20,000 Per Year 

“According to a new survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation, the average cost for an employer-provided family health insurance plan in 2019 has surpassed $20,000 per year, clocking in at $20,576 (a 5% increase from 2018), with employers bearing on average 71% of the cost … The real concern and question, though, is why costs continue to rise, especially since a recent Health Care Cost Institute study found that health care utilization declined by 0.2% from 2013 to 2017, even as average prices increased by 17.1%.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cost-of-employer-provided-health-coverage-passes-20-000-a-year-11569429000

 

A NEW FORM OF HIGH?

Notes from a cannabis investment fund manager:

  • Investable universe. As of the end of the second quarter, approximately 350 to 400 small-, mid-, and large-cap companies around the world were engaged in the cannabis industry.
  • Promising legislative developments. Canada is in the process of implementing “Cannabis 2.0,” which will provide guidance on recreational consumption of edibles, concentrates and topicals that contain cannabis. Cannabis 2.0 may be significant to companies that grow, distribute or sell these products.
  • A growth trend in CBD. Biosynthesis of the cannabinoid (CBD) compounds in the cannabis plant has the potential to be crucial to long-term growth. Many companies are looking to produce cultured cannabinoids as they are seeking to perfect the consistency and purity of the CBD.

 

DON’T MESS WITH LITTLE KIDS

From my friend Saby:

  • A little girl was talking to her teacher about whales.

The teacher said it was physically impossible for a whale to swallow a human because even though it was a very large mammal its throat was very small.

The little girl stated that Jonah was swallowed by a whale.

Irritated, the teacher reiterated that a whale could not swallow a human; it was physically impossible.

The little girl said, “When I get to heaven, I will ask Jonah.”

The teacher asked, “What if Jonah went to hell?”

The little girl replied, “Then you ask him.”

  • A kindergarten teacher was observing her classroom of children while they were drawing. She would occasionally walk around to see each child’s work.

As she got to one little girl who was working diligently, she asked what the drawing was.

The girl replied, “I’m drawing God.”

The teacher paused and then said, “But no one knows what God looks like.”

Without missing a beat, or looking up from her drawing, the girl replied, “They will in a minute.”

  • A Sunday school teacher was discussing the Ten Commandments with her five and six year olds.

After explaining the commandment to “honor” thy Father and thy Mother, she asked, “Is there a commandment that teaches us how to treat our brothers and sisters?”

From the back, one little boy (the oldest of a family) answered, “Thou shall not kill.”

  • The children were lined up in the cafeteria of a Catholic elementary school for lunch. At the head of the table was a large pile of apples. The nun wrote a note, and posted it on the apple tray:

“Take only ONE … God is watching.”

Moving further along the lunch line, at the other end of the table was a large pile of chocolate chip cookies.

A child had written a note, “Take all you want. God is watching the apples.”

 

NOT MY FAVORITES

However, for those of you that like these alternatives….

Gold’s price has risen 19% so far this year to around $1,520 per ounce, as investors have reportedly been shunning risky assets and moving to safer assets such as gold.

Interestingly, bitcoin enthusiasts insist on calling the cryptocurrency a “safe haven” asset. But according to analysis from The Block’s research analyst Ryan Todd, it is not. Bitcoin has seen an average 12.4% annualized 30-day volatility over the last five years, as compared to gold’s 2.5%.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-gold-holdings-3rd-consecutive-121012323.html

 

OF COURSE, NOT EVERYONE AGREES, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM

Forbes September 15: Gold Correction Underway

Here is a summary of the bearish influences on the metal price:

  • Sentiment is too bullish.
  • The weekly graph shows a hook sell signal, a sign of coming weakness.
  • The monthly cycle topped on the 11th and the weekly cycle does likewise on the 17th.
  • The combination of the bullish sentiment and the cycle tops point to a volatile week to the downside for gold. There is an irregular cycle that bottoms on the 20th, which has set off short-term rallies in the past. This is likely to touch off a short-term rally in the last week of the month.
  • Both cycles bottom in the second week of October.

I expect gold to fall to at least $1440, the 38.2% retracement of the prior uptrend, before the uptrend resumes.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/09/15/gold-correction-underway/

 

WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO LONG TERM?

I believe kiplinger is an excellent magazine and that John Waggoner is one of the best financial writers around, but “Two Ways to Beat the S&P” was a bit disturbing.

“The Kiplinger Dividend 15, our favorite stocks for dividend income, have been riding the bull since we last checked on them in the April issue of Kiplinger’s.” It’s nice to know that it’s done well for 3 months but that seems more like dangerous noise then useful investment guidance.

Besides, focusing on dividend return and not total return can be dangerously myopic. As Jason notes in his closing, “Ideally, the companies would boost their dividend to get over our 4% threshold, but the price decline could also do the trick. Let’s hope for the former, but be prepared for the latter.” Hope doesn’t sound like a good plan, and I have no idea what “prepare for the latter” means.

 

SPEAKING OF “LONG TERM”

More financial pornography:

Gone to Pot: 20 ETFs That Have Had a Rough Three Months

Agriculture and international funds, including ETFMG’s Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ), posted the worst returns over the past three months.

I guess that’s better than “a rough time in the last 10 minutes.”

https://www.wealthmanagement.com/etfs/gone-pot-20-etfs-have-had-rough-three-months

 

20 PEOPLE WHO HELPED SHAPE THE FINANCIAL PLANNING INDUSTRY

50TH ANNIVERSARY OF FINANCIAL PLANNING: FINANCIAL PLANNING FOUNDERS STARTED A MOVEMENT — AND CREATED A PROFESSION

Cool!

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Harold & Deena Evensky

https://www.investmentnews.com/article/20190914/FEATURE/190919985/financial-planning-founders-started-a-movement-and-created-a

 

GOOD NEWS FOR THE RICH

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IT’S OFFICIAL

End of Era: Passive Equity Funds Surpass Active in Epic Shift

It’s official: inexpensive index funds and ETFs have finally eclipsed old-fashioned stock pickers.

Passive investing styles have been gaining ground on actively managed funds for decades. But in August, the investment industry reached one of the biggest milestones in its modern history, as assets in US index-based equity mutual funds and ETFs topped those in active stock funds for the first time.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-11/passive-u-s-equity-funds-eclipse-active-in-epic-industry-shift

 

HELP!

My passport is about to expire (or it’s lost) and I travel in a few days.

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If you’re desperate and are prepared to pay $500–600, there is a reasonably convenient solution. You can visit one of FedEx Office’s 2,000 locations, or solve your problems online…

Taking care of things in person is a better option if you need to get your passport photograph taken. Any FedEx Office location offers photo services. After the photo, customers are guided to a computer area of the store and shown how to complete the transaction online.

You’ll have to pay a government fee of $170, but then rates skyrocket from there based on how quickly you need the goods. The price will depend on your timetable. Same-day service will cost you $449, while the cheapest and slowest option, 8–10 days, costs $119. Then there are shipping costs. FedEx standard overnight is $29.95, FedEx priority overnight is $39.95, and FedEx priority overnight including a Saturday is $54.95.

Note that just because you are processing it in one business day doesn’t mean you’re getting your passport back in one business day. In most cases, your passport still has to be shipped to you.

“For example, by choosing the 24-hour service option on Monday, FedEx will receive your application and begin processing Tuesday morning,” the FedEx website reads. “By Tuesday afternoon, your passport will be shipped to you for Wednesday delivery. You may be eligible to pick up your passport Tuesday afternoon or have it delivered the same day in select cities.”

https://www.chicagotribune.com/travel/ct-trav-wp-renew-passport-0718-20190718-ggwfcpttbrbjfippxaowl4tdty-story.html

 

WHAT YOUR ADVISOR ISN’T TELLING YOU

Excerpt from an excellent Kiplinger article:

“Ask the advisor to sign a fiduciary oath.”

Needless to say, I agree and recommend the Committee for the Fiduciary Standard “mom and pop” oath.

http://www.thefiduciarystandard.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/fiduciaryoath_individual.pdf

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T023-C000-S002-what-your-financial-adviser-isn-t-telling-you.html

 

FREE MAY BE VERY EXPENSIVE

More good advice from Kiplinger:

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“One of the more popular prospecting strategies for financial advisers over the last couple of decades has been the dinner seminar. While its popularity has waned recently, with new marketing strategies taking hold, there are still plenty of seminar dinners still taking place…

“In order to make these expensive presentations work from a profitable business model standpoint, these dinners can often be sales tools to sell high-commissioned products. Many presenters push products that maximize the YTB. That stands for Yield to Broker, which may not end with a good result for the client.”

So, be cautious of a “Free Steak Dinner” offer. It could end up being one of the more expensive meals of your life!

Caveat emptor.

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/retirement/T064-C032-S014-about-financial-seminars-with-free-steak-dinners.html

 

WOE BETIDE THE HEDGE FUND MARKETER

Looks like I’m not the only hedge fund skeptic.

From Institutional Investor:

“Investor relations professionals are finding it challenging to secure clients as investors continue to pull billions of dollars out of hedge funds … Regardless of firm size or assets under management, luring investors was seen as a top challenge by survey respondents. In the hedge fund industry, these challenges are further evidenced by five consecutive quarters of outflows, amounting to $62 billion redeemed by investors on a net basis between April 2018 and June 2019, according to HFR.”

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/594976df29687fe3e672bc85/t/5d938a3aa5fec676a1709e85/1569950266538/Woe+Betide+the+Hedge+Fund+Marketer.pdf

 

FOR YOUR BUCKET LIST

North Pole Igloos — $105,000/per night

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Located in the North Pole and claiming the title of “northernmost hotel in the world,” these igloos will cost you $105,000. Thankfully, that price tag includes more than just a night in a glass dome. You will also be given two nights in Svalbard, Norway, flights between Svalbard and the North Pole, one night in the igloo itself, chef-prepared meals, security and an Arctic wilderness guide. However, you’ll still have to coordinate your flight to the isolated island of Svalbard in Norway.

If that’s a bit pricey, you might consider…

The Muraka at the Conrad Maldives — a bargain at $50,000/per night

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The Muraka suite is the world’s first underwater hotel suite—and comes with a pretty price of $50,000 a night. However, there’s a four-night minimum stay required, so you’re looking at $200,000 to sleep with the fish. This suite is two stories tall, with the underwater portion being 16 feet below the Indian Ocean. What can you expect for $50k a night? You’ll enjoy a private chef, butler, boat, bar, gym, and infinity pool. In addition to all of that, you’ll automatically be upgraded to Hilton Diamond status.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/worlds-most-expensive-hotel-rooms/

 

GOODNESS

From my friend Mark:

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HOPE MAY SPRING ETERNAL BUT PERSISTENCE DOESN’T

From S&P Dow Jones Indices research — A REALLY IMPORTANT LESSON.

One key measure of successful active management lies in the ability of a manager or a strategy to outperform their peers repeatedly. Consistent success is the one way to differentiate a manager’s luck from skill. The S&P Persistence Scorecard shows that few funds consistently outperformed their peers:

  • 4% of domestic equity funds remained a top-quartile fund over the three-year period ending March 2019.
  • The ability of top-performing funds to maintain their status typically fell over longer horizons. For example, zero large-, mid-, or multi-cap funds maintained their top-quartile status at the end of the five-year measurement period.
  • Top-performing funds were more likely to become the worst-performing funds than vice versa over the five-year horizon. While 15.3% of bottom-quartile domestic equity funds moved to the top quartile, a greater percentage (31.5%) of top-quartile funds moved to the bottom quartile during the same period.

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https://us.spindices.com/search

 

SOME INTERESTING STATISTICS

From the 2019 SIFMA Capital Markets Fact Book:

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https://www.sifma.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019-Capital-Markets-Fact-Book-SIFMA.pdf

 

FINANCIAL PLANNERS LOOKIN’ GOOD

“Advisors” Score Highest in Intelligence While “Brokers” Score Lowest in Trustworthiness in Survey Showing Titles Matter

“Portland, Maine-based Tharp authored the “Consumer Perceptions of Financial Advisory Titles and Implications for Title Regulation” paper for the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He is an assistant professor of finance at the University of Southern Maine.

Among the financial professional titles, ‘financial planner’ scored the highest in trustworthiness, helpfulness, depth, work ethic and success. ‘Financial advisor’ scored the highest in intelligence. ‘Financial counselor’ was on top in honesty, serving the interest of others and caring.

In contrast, ‘broker’ scored the lowest in honesty, serving the interest of others, trustworthiness, helpfulness, depth and caring. ‘Life insurance agent’ scored the lowest in intelligence, work ethic and success.”

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https://financialadvisoriq.com/c/2508873/298023/advisors_score_highest_intelligence_while_brokers_score_lowest_trustworthiness_survey_showing_titles_matter?

 

THE BEST SONG EVER

https://www.youtube.com/watch

 

GOOD ONES

From my #1 son:

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RICH PEOPLE

Seems like there are a bunch.

At Family Office Exchange (FOX), one of the questions we hear most frequently is: How many single family offices (SFOs) are there?”

Recently, Family Wealth Report estimated that there were about 6,000. Campden Wealth puts the figure at 7,300

According to the Wall Street Journal, the threshold for SFOs is generally considered to be $100 million due to the costs and challenges of running such an entity. In the United States alone, there are approximately 20,407 individuals with more than $100 million in assets, as reported in the Credit Suisse 2018 Global Wealth Report.

https://www.wealthmanagement.com/high-net-worth/how-many-family-offices-are-there-united-states

 

THE FOX GUARDING THE HEN HOUSE

The Senate confirmed Mr. Scalia to head the agency [the Securities and Exchange Commission – SEC]. He now takes over a department whose fiduciary rule to raise investment advice standards in retirement accounts he was instrumental in killing.

Mr. Scalia, formerly a partner at Gibson Dunn & Crutcher, was the lead counsel in a lawsuit against the DOL rule. Representing financial industry opponents of the regulation, Mr. Scalia argued that the regulation was too costly and that the DOL had overstepped its authority in promulgating it.

https://www.investmentnews.com/article/20190926/FREE/190929944/senate-confirms-scalia-as-dol-secretary-on-party-line-vote

 

WHAT, ME WORRY?

From planadvisor, July–August 2019:

What advisors predict will be clients’ three greatest worries for the next 12 months, and what clients say those actually are:

Advisors                      Investors

Increased market volatility                   56%                             66%

Cost of health care                                  27%                             33%

Taxes                                                       26%                             31%

Safety of their assets                               26%                             27%

Inadequate savings for retirement          26%                             23%

Inflation/Rising interest rates                   24%                             16%

Who knew there were so many things to worry about?

 

PERKS OF PERSEVERANCE

Also from planadvisor:

Participants who remained in their 401(k) in the decade following the Great Recession of 2008 saw their average balances soar 466%, from $52,600 in the first quarter of 2009 to $297,700 in the first quarter of 2019.

 

REMEMBER THIS?

From my friend Alex:

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I remember them all.

 

THANK YOU, WOMEN!!!

Inventions by women from my friend Judy:

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THE FUTURE ACCORDING TO RESEARCH AFFILIATES

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https://interactive.researchaffiliates.com/asset-allocation

 

LOOKS LIKE I’M NOT ALONE

In questioning the wisdom of opening up investing in unregistered securities to unsophisticated investors:

State securities regulators are skeptical of the idea of loosening rules surrounding unregistered securities to allow ordinary investors to buy them.

“Earlier this year, the Securities and Exchange Commission issued a concept release focused on simplifying and harmonizing regulations on the sale of nonpublic investments, or private placements. Under current rules, individuals need to meet certain income and wealth thresholds to make such purchases.”

https://www.investmentnews.com/article/20190912/FREE/190919968/state-regulators-are-skeptical-about-expanding-private-offerings-to

 

THINKING OUTSIDE OF THE BOX

Woman uses hair dryer to stop speeders

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The Montana Highway Patrol awarded a grandmother with the unofficial title of “honorary state trooper” after she has attempted to slow down speeders in her neighborhood using a hair dryer.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2019/09/14/montana-woman-uses-hair-dryer-to-stop-speeders-pkg-vpx.kpax

 

2019 TAX SEASON AT A GLANCE

Journal of Accountancy:

Total returns received             $141.6 million

F-filings, by tax professionals $71.7 million

E-filings, self-prepared            $56.2 million

Total refunds                           $101.6 million

Average refund                       $2,729

 

WHAT THE EXPERTS EXPECT

Journal of Accountancy survey of 785 CPA decision-makers, August 2019:

Portion of financial leaders who felt positive about the U.S. economic outlook in the second quarter : 57%

Portion who were positive about the global economy: 35%

Portion who cited inflation concerns: 29%

Portion who had inflation concerns at the end of 2018: 49%

 

STRESSED

From my friend Taft:

The bad news from a NAPFA Survey (but the good news is financial planning can help):

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https://www.napfa.org/the-state-of-financial-planning-in-america

 

THE FUTURE REALLY AIN’T WHAT IT USED TO BE (MAYBE)

Google Claims “Quantum Supremacy,” Marking a Major Milestone in Computing

In what may be a huge milestone in computing, Google says it has achieved “quantum supremacy,” an experimental demonstration of the superiority of a quantum computer over a traditional one.

The claim, made in a new scientific paper, is the most serious indication yet that the promise of quantum computers—an emerging but unproven type of machine—is becoming reality, including their potential to solve formerly ungraspable mathematical problems…

“While our processor takes about 200 seconds to sample one instance of the quantum circuit 1 million times, a state-of-the-art supercomputer would require approximately 10,000 years to perform the equivalent task,” the researchers said.

The researchers estimate that performing the same experiment on a Google Cloud server would take 50 trillion hours—too long to be feasible. On the quantum processor, it took only 30 seconds, they said.

https://fortune.com/2019/09/20/google-claims-quantum-supremacy/

 

IT’S NOT EASY

Some investors believe investing is a game easily won and the best opportunities are in exotic investments. A few tidbits from a recent story about Harvard’s Endowment might help frame that unreality.

Harvard Was “Freaking Out”: How A $270 Million Bet Tanked

“Colin Butterfield was frantic. The Harvard University endowment executive wanted to unload a disastrous $270 million investment in Brazilian farmland. But the school had no takers, and it was burning through millions of dollars…Harvard’s fear manifests itself in 2,000 pages of Brazilian court records…

“The documents, many in Portuguese, offer a window into a debacle that has contributed to the lackluster performance of the world’s largest college endowment. Part of the reason: Harvard’s backfired bet on the most exotic of investments, direct holdings of agriculture in the developing world.

“Auditors wrote down the value of the Brazil farm project by about $200 million after the endowment decided to exit the development in 2017, according to the lawsuit. Even for Harvard, which has a $39 billion endowment, that’s a steep sum, about as much as the Ivy League school spends annually on undergraduate financial aid.”

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/harvard-was–freaking-out—how-a–270-million-brazil-bet-tanked-51859.html

 

WELCOME TO THE FUTURE

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AND MORE “I’M OLD”

  • Bonanza premiered 60 years ago
  • The Beatles split 50 years ago
  • Lafon Premier nearly 52 years ago
  • The Wizard of Oz is 80 years old
  • Jimi Hendrix and Janis Joplin have been dead 49 years
  • Back to the Future is 35 years old
  • Saturday Night Fever is 42 years old
  • The Corvette turned 66 this year
  • The Mustang is 55. 

 

INDIVIDUAL STOCK INVESTING INCREASES RISK

Before you decide to do a bit of individual stock picking, consider the following:

Larry Swedroe, one of the most thoughtful, academically practitioners I know, wrote an interesting review in Advisor Perspectives, a publication sharing ideas of experienced practitioners. Here are a few items from Larry’s contribution.

“A study in the Journal of Financial Economics, looking at overall returns from 1926 through 2015, and including all common stocks listed on the NYSE, Amex and NASDAQ exchanges.  Returns are inclusive of dividends and thus assume investors reinvest dividends in the stocks that paid them. The study found that only 47.7% of all annual returns were larger than the one-month Treasury rate…

“The conclusion here is that owning stocks is not unlike playing the lottery; you need to hold a majority of the tickets in order to justify playing at all. Of course, you have a better-than-even chance of winning a stock market investment, but you need to be diversified to have a break-even chance.  Most stocks have negative risk premiums…

“Yet another study covering the period 1983 through 2006 focused on the Russell 3000 index.  The index produced an annualized return of 12.8% and a cumulative return over that time period of 1,694%. But the mean annualized return of the 3,000 stocks was -1.1%.  39% of stocks lost money during the period and 19% lost at least 75% of their value, before considering inflation. Just 25% of the stocks were responsible for all the market’s gains.”

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/09/17/individual-stock-investing-increases-risk

 

2.96 MILLION?! WHO KNEW?

“Passive proliferation slows, with 770,000 indexes scrapped in 2019. But the  number of fixed-income indexes expanded, as did ESG indexes.”

The seemingly inexorable march of passive investing looks to have hit a roadblock.

The number of indexes around the world fell more than 20%, to 2.96 million, in 2019 as benchmark providers scrapped some of their gauges, according to a new report from the Index Industry Association.

If I’d been asked, I would have guessed a few hundred—certainly far fewer than a thousand.

https://www.investmentnews.com/article/20191016/FREE/191019949/passive-proliferation-slows-with-770000-indexes-scrapped-in-2019

 

BANK OF AMERICA DECLARES ‘THE END OF THE 60/40’ STANDARD PORTFOLIO

“Investors have long been told that the ideal portfolio should carry 60% of its holdings in equities and 40% in bonds, a mix that provides greater exposure to historically superior stock returns, while also granting the diversification benefits and lower risk of fixed-income investments.

But in a research note published by Bank of America Securities titled ‘The End of 60/40,’ portfolio strategists Derek Harris and Jared Woodard argue that ‘there are good reasons to reconsider the role of bonds in your portfolio,’ and to allocate a greater share toward equities…

“The future of asset allocation may look radically different from the recent past.” they wrote, “and it is time to start planning for what comes after the end of 60/40.”

The idea that any specific allocation is “ideal” for all investors is nonsense. I also hope that no one has a fixed asset allocation that is not frequently reviewed. The concept is not “buy and forget” but “buy and manage.” Although our allocations are strategic, they are constantly reviewed and do change over time.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-america-declares-the-end-of-the-60-40-standard-portfolio-2019-10-15?rss=1&siteid=rss

 

THE REPORTS OF MY DEATH ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED

Same song, second verse….

Some earlier headlines from my associate Marcos.

  • “Why the 60/40 Asset Allocation Rule is Dead”—April 25,2013
  • “Death of the 60/40 portfolio”—February 20, 2015
  • “60-40 Is Dead”—October 29,2015 

 

MORE ON THE 60/40

Also from my associate Marcos:

The 60/40 portfolio passed away on October 16, 2019, from complications of low interest rates and a bad case of Fed manipulation. This is the twenty-seventh time 60/40 has died in the past decade but enemies market timing, day traders, and alternative investments are hopeful it will stick this time around.

60/40 was 91 years old and lived a long and prosperous life, returning more than 8.1% a year. This nearly matched the return of 60/40’s best friend, the S&P 500 (9.5%), but it did so with 40% less volatility.

60/40 was such a bright light in a world often full of darkness. It was down in just 20 of its 91 years on this planet. And it was just four years old when it had its worst year in 1931 (down 27%). 60/40 finished out its life strong, returning an astonishing 10.2% per year from 1980–2018 with just five down years over the past 39 years. That was much better than the 6.9% annual return from the day the portfolio was born in 1928 through 1979.

There were some lean years when 60/40 was learning how to walk early on. After rising 27% by the time it turned one, 60/40 fell 40% over the next four years during the Great Depression.

60/40 set a good example, as it was the most popular benchmark against which other investment portfolios often compared themselves. Many were envious of the performance of the 60/40 portfolio because it was so simple. They could never wrap their heads around the fact that a mix of stocks and bonds, rebalanced periodically, could outperform so much of the professional investment universe.

I’ve shared many a conversation with 60/40 over beers about how complex so many professional investors try to make their portfolio. 60/40 would often shake its head and laugh when thinking about it. I’ll miss those conversations.

Two of 60/40’s most redeeming qualities were balance and risk mitigation. There were just four times in the portfolio’s 91-year history that both stocks and bonds fell during the same year: 1931, 1941, 1969, and most recently in 2018.

60/40 was always there for its investor friends when they needed it, but it did have a wild side that would rear its ugly head from time to time. The stock portion of its personality was down 25 years of its 91-year lifetime. The average loss for stocks during those 25 years was more than 13%. But 60/40 had a more stable, rational side of its personality that balanced out these wild times. During those 25 down years in the stock market, bonds averaged a gain of more than 5%, dampening some of the losses and allowing 60/40 to live to fight another day when things got bad.

60/40 was remarkably stable and someone you could count on over the long haul. It never had a 10-year period where it lost money. Many of you will remember that 10-year stretch from ’82 to ’91 where 60/40 went on a ridiculous run, returning nearly 350%. In five out of those 10 years, it saw returns of more than 20% and four of those years were over 30%! We all had a blast despite that wicked hangover from the Black Monday party in 1987.

But even when things were the bleakest, from 1929–1938, 60/40 still earned a respectable 20% total return, even in the face of mounting adversity.

Investors will now have to grapple with the fact that with the passing of the 60/40 portfolio, diversification is also dead. One of 60/40’s early mentors, Peter Bernstein, once said, “Diversification is the only rational deployment of our ignorance.” It’s a shame we will now have to figure out other ways to deploy our ignorance if stocks and bonds no longer offset one another.

It’s sad because 60/40 didn’t have to end this way. Investors could have simply diversified more widely across different geographies, asset classes and strategies, saved more money or adjusted their expectations.

60/40 is survived by its immediate family—wife, asset allocation, and children Vanguard, rebalancing and comprehensive investment planning. Distant relatives include crypto, pot stocks, and technology IPOs, but they were all left out of the will.

Donations can be made to your own IRA, 401k, or brokerage account on a regular basis in 60/40’s honor.

RIP, 60/40 portfolio. You will be missed. I hope to see you again someday in the big retirement portfolio in the sky, where interest rates are always 6% and stock market valuations never go above 15 times the previous 10 years’ worth of average earnings.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/10/a-eulogy-for-the-60-40-portfolio/ 

 

MY NEVER-ENDING SOAPBOX: REGULATION BEST INTEREST

I placed this at the end in case you’re in the mood for some serious stuff.

The debate over Congressional, regulatory and court activities regarding the issues related to protecting investors interest in the financial world has been going on for decades, but it has reached a fever pitch in the last year or so. The latest manifestation is the SEC’s release of what has become known as the “Best Interest Rule.”

Let me preface this with the observation that, as readers of my past NewsLetters know, I’m extremely biased on this subject.

Below are excerpts from the SECs new Rule and my thoughts noted in brackets and indented.

“SEC adopts rules and interpretations to enhance protections and preserve choice for retail investors in their relationships with financial professionals.

“With the adoption of this package, regardless of whether a retail investor chooses a broker-dealer or an investment advisor (or both), the retail investor will be entitled to a recommendation (from a broker-dealer) or advice (from an investment advisor) that is in the best interest of the retail investor and that does not place the interests of the firm or the financial professional ahead of the interest of the retail investor…”

[From the dictionary:

Recommendation – a suggestion or proposal as to the best course of action, especially one put forward by an authoritative body. Synonym : advice

Advice – guidance or recommendations offered with regard to prudent future action

Begs the question: if there is no fundamental difference between suitability (brokers) and fiduciary (registered investment advisors) as reflected below, why not just hold everyone to the fiduciary standard?]

“This rulemaking package will bring the legal requirements and mandated disclosures for broker-dealers and investment advisors in line with reasonable investor expectations…”

[As you read this, you decide if it’s in line with reasonable expectations. I’ve been practicing for over 30 years and don’t find it remotely reasonable.]

Solely Incidental Interpretation

The broker-dealer exclusion under the advisor act excludes from the definition of investment advisor – and thus from the application of the Advisers Act – a broker or dealer whose performance of advisory services is solely incidental to the conduct of his business as a broker or dealer and who receives no special compensation for those services. The interpretation confirms and clarifies the Commission’s interpretation of the “solely incidental” prong of the broker-dealer exclusion of the Advisers Act. Specifically, the final interpretation states that a broker-dealer’s advice as to the value and characteristics of securities or as to the advisability of transacting and securities falls within the “solely incidental” prong of this exclusion if the advice is provided in connection with, and is reasonably related to, the broker-dealer’s primary business of effecting securities transactions.

[This is the opening big enough to drive not just a truck through but a battleship. When you look at the ads of the major wirehouses, ask yourself if they sound like something “solely incidental” to the “business of effecting securities transactions” or comprehensive planning advice:

Merrill Lynch: It all starts with you. Your life. Your priorities. Our advice and guidance.

Morgan Stanley: Wealth Management. We help individuals reach their long-term financial goals.

Prudential: Whether you’re a DIYer or prefer a professional’s approach, our mutual funds, ETFs and personalized portfolios – delivered the way you want – can help you live the financial life you dream about. Your personalized investing solutions await.

Edward Jones: Before we can develop an investment strategy for you, we get to know you. Why are you investing? What do you want to do? This is your financial future. It shouldn’t be left to chance or some off-the-shelf plan.

Please understand, I believe these are all commendable services; however, they are not brokerage services, they are investment advisory services and should be subject to a fiduciary duty.]

“An investment advisor owes a fiduciary duty to its clients under the Advisers Act a duty that is established by an enforceable through the Advisers Act. This duty is principles-based and applies to the entire relationship between an investment advisor and its client.”

[Yep, I agree, and it should apply to ALL firms who provide investment advice.]

Reg B ban on sales contest

“… Would not prevent a BD from offering only proprietary products, placing material limitations on the menu of products or incentivizing the sale of such products through its compensation practices, so long as the incentive is not based on the sale of specific securities or types of securities within a limited period of time.”

[Wow, that really is going to protect the public.]

Standard of Conduct

If you are a broker-dealer that provides recommendations subject to regulation best interest, include [emphasis required]: “When we provide you with a recommendation, we have to act in your best interest and not put our interests ahead of yours. At the same time, the way we make money creates some conflicts with your interest.

“If you are an investment advisor, include [emphasis required]: “When we act as your investment advisor, we have to act in your best interest and not put our interest ahead of yours. At the same time, the way we make money creates some conflicts with your interest.

[Okay, can anyone really argue that this distinction is “reasonable”? Can you figure out the difference between a broker-dealer and an investment advisor? To me, they sound like two peas in a pod, both swimming in a sea of similar conflicts. Horsepucky!]

Don’t forget to ask whoever you’re getting advice from to sign the Oath.

http://www.thefiduciarystandard.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/fiduciaryoath_individual.pdf

https://www.investmentnews.com/article/20191008/FREE/191009930/finra-issues-regulation-best-interest-checklist-for-brokers

https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2019/34-86032.pdf [the full report, all 564 pages]

 

Hope you enjoyed this issue, and I look forward to “seeing you” again.

 

_HRE SIGNATURE

Harold Evensky

Chairman

Evensky & Katz / Foldes Financial Wealth Management

 

 

For previous NewsLetters:

NewsLetter, Volume 12, No. 5 – September 2019

NewsLetter, Volume 12, No. 4 – July 2019

 

 

Important Disclosure
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Evensky & Katz / Foldes Financial Wealth Management (“EK-FF”), or any non-investment-related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from EK-FF. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. EK-FF is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of EK-FF’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request. Please Note: If you are an EK-FF client, please remember to contact EK-FF, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. EK-FF shall continue to rely on the accuracy of information that you have provided.

NewsLetter Vol. 12, No. 5 – September 2019

HRE Headshot_01-2019

Harold Evensky CFP® , AIF® Chairman

DEAR READER,

NOT SO GOOD NEWS

Financial Literacy Skills Have Taken a Nose Dive Since the Great Recession

“Younger people had the sharpest drop in their ability to answer four of five financial literacy questions correctly…

It’s been a decade since the Great Recession’s upheaval, and while some measures of Americans’ economic well-being have recovered like the unemployment rate, their financial literacy isn’t one of them.

Between 2009 and 2018, there was an 8% slip in the amount of people who could correctly answer most questions about interest rates, inflation, bond prices, financial risk and mortgage rates — from 42% to 34%.

That “clear trend of declining financial literacy” is one of the worrying signals in a three-year study from the FINRA Investor Education Foundation, the educational arm of the nonprofit organization regulating the brokerage industry.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-financial-literacy-skills-have-plummeted-since-the-great-recession-2019-06-26

ARE YOU GOD’S WIFE? A FEW ITEMS TO MAKE YOU SMILE

From Lee

Teacher Debbie Moon’s first graders were discussing a picture of a family One little boy in the picture had a different hair color than the other members. One of her students suggested that he was adopted.

A little girl said, “I know all about adoption — I was adopted …”

“What does it mean to be adopted?” asked another child.

“It means,” said the girl, “that you grew in your mommy’s heart instead of her “tummy !”

************************ *********************

On my way home one day, I stopped to watch a Little League baseball game that was being played in a park near my home. As I sat down behind the bench on the first-base line, I asked one of the boys what the score was.

“We’re behind 14 to nothing,” he answered with a smile.

“Really?” I said. “I have to say, you don’t look very discouraged.”

“Discouraged?” the boy asked with a puzzled look on his face.

“Why should we be discouraged? We haven’t been up to bat yet.”

************************ *********************

An eye witness account from New York City, on a cold day in December some years ago: A little boy, about 10 years old, was standing before a shoe store on the roadway, barefooted, peering through the window, and shivering with cold.

A lady approached the young boy and said, “My, but you’re in such deep thought staring in that window!”

“I was asking God to give me a pair of shoes,” was the boy’s reply.

The lady took him by the hand, went into the store, and asked the clerk to get half a dozen pairs of socks for the boy. She then asked if he could give her a basin of water and a towel. He quickly brought them to her.

She took the little fellow to the back part of the store and, removing her gloves, knelt down, washed his little feet, and dried them with the towel.

By this time, the clerk had returned with the socks. Placing a pair upon the boy’s feet, she purchased him a pair of shoes.

She tied up the remaining pairs of socks and gave them to him. She patted him on the head and said, “No doubt, you will be more comfortable now.”

As she turned to go, the astonished kid caught her by the hand and, looking up into her face with tears in his eyes, asked her:

“Are you God’s wife?”

OH NO!

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal

“What, me worry?”

 MAD Magazine leaving the newsstands after 67-year run.

09-2019_01

CANNABIS: THE INVESTMENT OF THE FUTURE?

Journal of Financial Planning FPA Survey

22%……….Respondents who say they plan to decrease their use/recommendation of individual stocks over the next 12 months

44% ……. Respondents who say they plan to increase their use/recommendation of ETFs over the next 12 months

55%……… Respondents who say clients have asked about investing in marijuana or cannabis stocks/companies in the past six months.

10……….. Number of states, plus Washington, D.C., that have legalized recreational marijuana over the last few years.

$50 billion. Estimated worth of legal marijuana in the U.S. today.

 

CAUTIOUS CEOs

Journal of Accountancy

 5%………. Portion of CEOs in 2018 who said they expected a drop in the growth of global GDP.

29%……..   Portion who said so in 2019

2012……   The last time they were so pessimistic

 

OUTLOOK BLEAK FOR US RETIREMENT SAVINGS

InvestmentNews

“Most Americans aren’t financially prepared for retirement.

About 44% of Americans said their retirement savings are not on track, versus 36% who said they are, according to the Federal Reserve Board’s six annual survey of household economics. The rest of Americans aren’t sure whether their plan is on track or not and one-quarter have no retirement savings or pension whatsoever.

RETIREMENT MONEY

Less Than $10,000…….         19%

$10,000-$99,999……….         31%

$100,000-$499,999……         24%

Over $500,000………….        12%

Don’t Know …………….         14%

 

THE PROBLEM WITH PLUS LOANS

Kiplinger’s Personal Finance

New student loan rates are lower, but parent loans are still no bargain.

COST OF A $31,000 LOAN

FEDERAL STUDENT LOAN….        4.529%            Total Cost…. $38,606

PARENTS PLUS LOAN …               7.079%            Total Cost…. $43,344

 

GOOD LIFE LESSON

One day a schoolteacher wrote on the board the following:

9×1 =     7

9×2 =   18

9×3 =   27

9×4 =   36

9×5 =   45

9×6 =   54

9×7 =   63

9×8 =   72

9×9 =   81

9×10 = 90

When she was done, she looked to the students and they were all laughing at her because of the first equation, which was wrong, and the teacher said the following”

“I wrote that first one wrong on purpose, because I wanted you to learn something important this was for you to know how the world out there will treat you. You can see that I wrote the RIGHT thing nine times but none of you congratulated me for it but you all laughed and criticize me because of one wrong thing I did.”

So this is the lesson:

The world will never appreciate the good you do a million times but will criticize the one wrong thing you do…. DON’T GET DISCOURAGED. ALWAYS RISE ABOVE ALL THE LAUGHTER AND CRTICISM. STAY STRONG.

SPACE

Texas Monthly

Number of people who have walked on the moon 12
Percent who were once Boy Scouts 92%
Weight of lunar rocks, core samples, pebbles, and moon dust the six lunar missions

brought back to earth

 

842lbs

Number of pairs of moon boots that were left on the moon to compensate for the weight

of the 842 pounds of moon rocks

 

12

Number of U.S. flags planted on the moon 6
Number of successful U.S. space shuttle missions 133

 

 CLIENTS CURIOUS, BUT PLANNERS WARY OF CRYPTO

Journal of Financial Planning – FPA Survey

 34%………………          An interesting concept to keep an eye on, but not invest in yet

32%………………           Not a viable investment option

18%………………           A fad that is best avoided

15%………………           A gamble; only worth investing money you can stand to lose

1%……………….           A viable investment option that has a place in a portfolio

 

EYES OF THE BEHOLDER

Planners may not be too fond of crypto but volatility junkies seem pleased. Of course, planners are focused on long-term financial health and it seems many crypto investors are more into entertainment.

 Crypto Conference Shows Bitcoin Getting Whole Lot More Fun Again

As little as six months ago, Bitcoin was moribund, with prices languishing at a fifth of their record high, disappointing a mass of cryptocurrency enthusiasts who had grown used to extreme — and often upwards — moves in the virtual currency.

But this week’s Asia Blockchain Summit in Taipei highlighted how volatility is back, reviving the excitement around crypto trading.

“Bitcoin is fun, but it’s a hell of a lot more fun at 100 times leverage,” said Arthur Hayes, the founder and chief executive officer of the exchange BitMEX. “That’s what people want to see in crypto, they want that high volatility,” he said. “At the end of the day, we’re all in the entertainment business of traders.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-05/crypto-conference-shows-bitcoin-getting-whole-lot-more-fun-again

 

HERE’S HOW MUCH YOU NEED TO EARN TO BE IN THE TOP 1%. HINT: IT’S A LOT

USA Today

“The Economic Policy Institute (EPI) published a study that looked at income inequality based on 2017 reported wages, and the results may be surprising. While the top 1% obviously outearn the bottom 90% by a considerable margin, you don’t need to make millions each year to join them. And if you consider yourself relatively well-to-do, you may be in the top 5% or 10% already.

Currently, you need to make a minimum of $421,926 per year to be considered in the top 1%, according to the EPI study. But in this crowd, that’s just scraping by. The average annual income among the top 1% is $718,766, and the top 0.1% earn an average of $2,756,865. By contrast, the bottom 90% make an average of just $36,182…

The 1% income threshold varies by state. In New Mexico, you only need to earn $255,429 to join this elite group, while Connecticut residents need a minimum of $700,800. You can view statistics for every state and region, and the country as a whole, on the EPI website

While most of us – by definition – will never join the top 1%, joining the top 10% (or even the top 5%) is attainable for those in well-paying fields. You need to make $118,400 to join the top 10% and $195,070 for the top 5%. Again, these figures don’t include investment income, but they give you a baseline.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/07/10/what-you-need-to-earn-to-be-in-the-top-1/39659489/

 

AH WELL

BRAIN PILLS ARE A BUST – AARP BULLETIN

One in four Americans 50 and older take a supplement for brain health. They are likely flushing dollars down the drain, says a new report by AARP global counsel on brain health…

The study, “The Real Deal On Brain Health Supplements,” says more than $3 billion was spent on memory supplements in 2016, a number that is expected to nearly double by 2023.

“Despite adults’ widespread use of brain health supplements, there appears to be little reason for it,” the study says. “It’s a massive waste of money.”

 

TRUST ME, THE CHECK IS IN THE MAIL

The fiduciary/suitability debate continues. Having lost to big $$ in the national arena, the fight now moves to state regulation. Recently Massachusetts considered a proposal to apply a state-based common law fiduciary standard to broker-dealers’ and investment advisers’ advisory activities. A consortium of organizations including my Committee for the Fiduciary Standard sent a letter to the state in support of the proposal. Below is an excerpt from the letter highlighting the issue:

Here are just a few examples of firms’ marketing materials supporting the conclusion they function as “trusted advisors.”

  • A. Davidson states: “Trust is the cornerstone of the relationship between you, as an investor, and the D.A. Davidson & Co. financial professionals working for you. Your needs should always come first.”
  • Mass Mutual states: “Join millions of people who place their confidence and trust in us.”
  • Raymond James states: “[I]t’s developing a long-term relationship built on understanding and trust. Your advisor is there for you throughout the planning and investing process, giving you objective and unbiased advice along the way.”
  • Schwab states: “A relationship you can trust, close to home.”
  • UBS states: “The UBS Wealth Management Americas approach is based on the trusted relationship of our Financial Advisors and their clients. Our experienced Advisors are committed to understanding clients’ needs and delivering insightful, informed advice to help them realize their dreams.”

The harm to investors is immense when they reasonably, but mistakenly, believe they are getting advice that’s in their best interest based on a trusted relationship with their financial professional. In addition to paying higher costs, investors who rely on biased sales recommendations as if they constituted unbiased advice can end up facing unnecessary risks or receiving substandard returns. Cumulatively, these industry practices drain tens of billions of dollars every year out of investors’ pockets and into the pockets of firms and their financial professionals. According to one study, Massachusetts IRA investors alone lose approximately $491 million a year as a result of conflicted advice. The losses are even larger when considering all types of accounts (retirement and non-retirement) and the full range of products sold within these accounts.

Given how broker-dealers advertise and function as advisers in position of trust and confidence with their customers, it is entirely appropriate to apply a common law fiduciary duty to their advisory activities.

If you’d like to see the entire letter, please let me know.

 

ASSET ALOCATION — SMART, NOT BRILLIANT

From JP Morgan’s most excellent Guide to the Markets 3Q 2019

09-2019_02

SOMEONE MUST BE DEADLY AT SCRABBLE

What happens if you rearrange the letters

From my friend Leon

PRESBYTERIAN: BEST IN PRAYER

ASTRONOMER: MOON STARER

DESPERATION: A ROPE ENDS IT

THE EYES: THEY SEE

THE MORSE CODE: HERE COME DOTS

DORMITORY: DIRTY ROOM

ELECTION RESULTS: LIES — LET’S RECOUNT

SNOOZE ALARMS: ALAS! NO MORE Z’S

 

 PICTURES FOR ‘SENIOR’ PEOPLE

From my #1 son. I think he’s trying to rub it in …

WARNING:  If you are not a senior, you cannot look at these pictures because you will not understand!

09-2019_03

09-2019_04

PROTECTING THE LITTLE GUY

InvestmentNews

 I sure am pleased to see the government protecting the opportunity for the little guy to invest in private placements. The following are excerpts from two articles in the same issue of InvestmentNews:

SEC Wants More Access to Private Placements

“The Securities and Exchange Commission is looking for ways to allow more investors to buy unregistered securities and enable emerging companies more easily to raise capital….SEC Chairman J Clayton has pushed open private markets more widely to ordinary investors so they can be in on the ground floor of the launch of breakthrough companies.”

“Alternative investment advocates assert that such products diversify portfolios and offer investors a way to hedge against general market downturns. Investor advocates warned private placements can be highly risky and often harm investors.”

GPB Reports Huge Value Declines

“In a blow to investors, GPB Capital last Friday reported significant losses in the value of its investment funds which are in the form of private partnerships…The two largest GPB Holdings II and GPB Automotive Portfolio, have seen declines in value, respectively, of 25.4% and 39%….GPB’s five other smaller funds reported declines in estimated value of 25% to 73%, according to GPB.

Having served as an expert witness for decades, I’ve seen all too often how investors, particularly smaller investors, have been devastated by investments in exciting sounding private placements that the neither understood nor appreciated the risk. I vote on the side of investor advocates and believe the SEC should also.

MORE PROTECTING THE LITTLE GUY

“In a letter Tuesday, the American Securities Association accused the CFP Board of subverting the authority of the Security and Exchange Commission by holding certification designees to a standard of service beyond what is required by law.”

https://www.wealthmanagement.com/industry/cfp-boards-private-standards-raise-concerns

How awful and presumptuous of the CFP Board to require higher standards of professionals than the abdominally low ones currently required by law. What are regulators thinking of? If I didn’t know better, I’d think it was a joke. Unfortunately, I do know better and it’s not a joke. If you haven’t yet asked your advisor to sign the Committee for Fiduciary Standards Oath, now’s the time.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2012/04/17/harold-evensky-s-fiduciary-oath

MORE GREAT HISTORICAL PICTURES (AND A FEW REPEATS)

From my friend Judy

09-2019_05

09-2019_06

WHAT IS THE SIZE OF THE AVERAGE RETIREMENT NEST EGG?

2019 analysis of more than 30 million retirement accounts by Fidelity Investments found that the average balance in corporate-sponsored 401(k) plans at the end of 2018 was $95,600.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/d84dcdd6-f54b-3db9-ad85-b7b9d3919510/what-is-the-size-of-the.html

 

TRAGIC NEWS WITH A HAPPY ENDING

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal

“When announcers last July declared Joey Chestnut the winter of Nathan’s Famous hot dog eating contest, spectators had little reason to doubt the score: 64 dogs and 10 minutes.

But the judges, unable to clearly view the contestants’ plates amid all the cups on the table and overwhelmed by the eater’s ability to scarf two or three frankfurters at a time, had undercounted Chestnut by 10 dogs, briefly robbing him of a new world record.

Although judges quickly corrected the score and handed Chestnut his world record, the error caused a small scandal. And it sent organizers of the annual Fourth of July contest scrambling for solutions to avoid a repeat.”

 

I LOVE LUBBOCK

This was a posting on our neighborhood website around July 4th.

“Ziggy ran from our house. Currently wearing a unicorn costume and an American flag.”

I’ll bet I know why Ziggy ran away. Should be easy to find.

 

BITCOIN RESEARCHERS WARN OVER POTENTIAL SUDDEN, SHORT PRICE SURGE

Now, new research has found that national holidays and family gatherings could drive interest in buying bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies when the market is already doing well or improving — suggesting we could be set for a new bitcoin boost this Independence Day weekend, but it might not last.

As families and friends gather for Fourth of July celebrations across the U.S., many will be asked the question: “Have you heard of bitcoin?”

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency awareness, something that was harder to measure before bitcoin’s epic 2017 bull run sent the bitcoin price from under $1,000 per bitcoin to almost $20,000 in fewer than 12 months, appears to be closely tied to the bitcoin price, which gets pushed on by so-called fear of missing out (FOMO), according to bitcoin and crypto prime dealer SFOX’s research team.

“Part of the narrative surrounding [the 2017] unprecedented bull run was that many people were hearing about bitcoin for the first time,” the researchers wrote in a blog post. “Over Thanksgiving dinner, the story goes, Luddites in the family would ask the more tech-savvy among them about this ‘bitcoin’ they’d seen in mainstream news  —  and how could they purchase some ‘bitcoin coins’ for themselves?”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2019/07/04/bitcoin-could-surge-this-4th-of-july-holiday/#4ec7b1ea1d61

 

A SOBERING CONCLUSION

For investors who want to pick individual stocks.

“Research from Vanguard, the fund house that invented passive funds, showed investors would capture the best returns in the American stock market by owning more than 500 companies.

The firm tested nine separate portfolios made up of varying numbers of shares: one, five, 10, 15, 30, 50, 100, 200, 500, and found the higher number of shares, the better returns.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/funds/perfect-number-stocks-hold-portfolio-think/

 

HOW TO BE A HIT ON THE BEACH

https://youtu.be/n3ckybKWhHI

 

CAVEAT EMPTOR 

As much as I like and respect Kiplinger, I remind you that investing based on headlines and good stories is a dangerous strategy. Here’s an example:

Kiplinger Mutual Fund Spotlight

WINNING BY LOSING LESS

“A hefty chunk of cash has helped this small-company fund’s performance.

Cash is always king at Royce Special Equity. Charles Dreifus and Steve Mc Boyle want to have ample funds to snap up shares when they see opportunities. The small-company stock mutual fund typically holds 8% to 10% of its assets and ready money — more than its peers (funds that invest in value-priced small-stocks), which maintain a roughly 3% cash position.”

The article goes on to say, “Overall, the fund’s strategy of winning over time by losing less has earned mixed results. Special equities five-, 10-and 15-year annualized returns, for instance, lag its typical peer and the Russell 2000 index. But the fund has been roughly 15% to 20% less volatile than its peers over those stretches.”

Sounds good, and indeed in 2018 the fund lost about 40% less than its peer universe. However, how did it look over the long term compared to an ETF alternative? For that purpose, I used the iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF (IJS), and the answer is, “not so good.”

ROYCE SPECIAL EQUITY INVESTMENT

09-2019_07

When taxes are factored in, the results are even more depressing.

09-2019_08

How about the risk-adjusted argument? Another “not so good.”

09-2019_09  09-2019_10

09-2019_11

I then looked at the fund ranked number one in the story by Kiplinger for one-year returns. Again, the “winning by losing” rationale was a failure. Add to that the fact that the tenure of the three fund managers was just a shade over a year and a half when the article was published highlights my warning of “buyer beware.”

QUAKER SMALL/MEDIUM IMPACT VALUE

09-2019_12

And how about when we factor in taxes?

09-2019_13

And of course, all of these statistics are not very meaningful as all of the managers are fairly new.

MANAGER TENURE

Andrew Cowen           –          1/12/2018

Thomas Lott                –          1/12/2018

Andy Kaufman            –          2/01/2019

 

I’M DEFINITELY GETTING TOO OLD FOR THIS NEW AGE

From American Way Magazine

“Goat yoga is so 2017 … A new class in England’s bucolic Lake district pairs wellness with…lemurs.”

 

I THOUGHT I WAS AN OPTIMIST

Massachusetts police ask residents to refrain from crime until after the heat wave passes
https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/20/us/police-department-heat-wave-stop-crime-trnd/

 

POORLY CORRELATED? NOT SO MUCH

JP Morgan’s Guide to the Markets 3Q 2019

Limited correlation benefits with hedge funds and private equity.

09-2019_14

 

OVER CONFIDENCE — BUY LOW, SELL HIGH

From The NBER Digest “How Strongly Do Expectations About Returns Affect Portfolio Choice?”

Based on a study of Vanguard customers (average age 58.7 with and an average of $467,000 invested with Vanguard). “The survey data show that there is a positive relationship between an investor’s expectation of the return in the next year on the stock portfolio and that investor’s portfolio composition… On average, an investor expecting a 1 percentage point increase in return over the next year increases portfolio equity holdings by about 0.7 percentage points.”

 

REALLY GOOD NEWS!!

“Want to live longer? Drink alcohol, new study says” | USA TODAY 

“A recent study of nearly 8,000 men and women aged 78 to 88 suggests that drinking alcohol at an advanced age might actually increase longevity….

Now, in contrast, a paper titled “Alcohol Consumption in Later Life and Mortality in the United States,” just published in the journal Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research, reports that researchers have found consistent associations between occasional and moderate drinking and lower mortality rates, compared to lifetime abstainers.

Occasional drinkers are those who consume alcohol less than one day a week and who, when they do drink, limit intake to three drinks daily for men, two drinks for women. Moderate male drinkers, indulging on one or more days per week, imbibe one to three drinks while females have one to two.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/07/13/drink-wine-beer-alcohol-at-senior-age-to-live-longer-study-finds/39670541/

 

MOVE OVER MEDITATION

If alcohol doesn’t work, try rage…

“Meditating is one way to reduce stress, pulverizing a porcelain toilet is another — or at least that’s the thinking behind the rise of rage rooms. In the past few years, more than 50 of these facilities have opened around the world, inviting pent-up patrons to pay a fee, put on safety goggles and vandalize their way back to their happy place…”

American Way magazine

 

CHARTS WORTH PONDERING

From JP Morgan’s always fascinating Guide to the Markets 3Q 2019

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WHERE DOES THE TIME GO?

According to the Pew Research Center, which has analyzed the ATU surveys [Bureau of Labor Statistics and its American Time Use Surveys], Americans age 60 and older sleep just over 8½ hours a day, on average. About seven hours are spent on leisure; three hours on chores and errands; a little more than one hour on eating; about one hour on personal activities, such as grooming and health care; and just under an hour on unpaid caregiving and volunteering.

Work remains part of the equation, as well. Men age 60-plus spend two hours a day, on average, on paid work; women age 60-plus spend one hour and 12 minutes.

Looking more closely at leisure, the average person age 60-plus spends the bulk of their leisure time — about 4¼ hours each day — in front of a television, computer, tablet or other electronic device. (That’s an increase of almost 30 minutes in the past decade.) The balance of leisure time is spent, among other activities, on socializing, reading, listening to music, attending events, etc.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-people-do-in-retirement-hour-by-hour-11562338744

 

 MORE OLDER THAN DIRT

 I have a little “nostalgia” book with “Remember When” for my birthday year — 1942

World News:         Lieutenant Cornel Doolittle leads a bombing group over Tokyo.

National News:    The Manhattan Project begins; zoot suits are a fashion statement for men; Kellogg’s  Raisin Bran and instant coffee introduced.

Life Expectancy:   62.9 years

Cost of Living:       New house: $3,775; new car: $920; average income: $1,885/year; movie ticket: 30 cents; gas: 15 cents; bread: 9 cents/loaf

1942 Birthdays:    Wayne Newton, Annette Funicello, Harrison Ford, Muhammad Ali, Aretha Franklin, Sandra Dee, Barbara Streisand, Tammy Wynette

Movies:              Casablanca, Bambi, Mrs. Miniver

Music:                 Jingle, Jangle, Jingle; White Christmas; Deep in the Heart of Texas [Yes!]

 

INVESTORS IMPERILED?

AARP says new SEC rule fails to protect retirees. AARP BULLETIN

“Investing for retirement will be less safe and more confusing under a new Securities and Exchange Commission regulation governing the actions of stockbrokers and investment advisors, AARP and others say… . The new regulation best interest rule, adopted 3-1 in June by the SEC commissioners, doesn’t protect investors, critics say. Under the rule, no one is required to offer advice or recommendations that put the interest of investors first, AARP and other critics say. ‘As a result, conflicts will continue to taint the advice American investors received from brokers,’ says SEC Commissioner Robert Jackson Junior, the dissenting vote.

AARP agrees. ‘This rule will have a negative impact on the ability of Americans to save and invest for retirement,’ says Nancy LeaMond, AARP’s Executive Vice President and Chief Advocacy and engagement officer.”

Seems I have good company with my frustration regarding the new SEC regulation.

THE PENSION CRISIS AT CONGRESS’ DOOR

AARP BULLETIN

Pensions that have been cut or approved for cuts……………………………………..…… 90,000

Workers and retirees whose plans are expected to run out of money…………..1,300,000

 

POLICE HUMOR

From my friend Alex

09-2019_18

ONE MORE ‘DIG DEEPER’

AND THE NO. 1 STOCK FUND MANAGER IS…

Wall Street Journal

“The winner: Dennis Lynch, head of the Counterpoint Global team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management and manager of Morgan Stanley Institutional Discovery Portfolio (MPEGX) — which romped across the finish line with a 30.8% return for the trailing 12 months ended June 30.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/and-the-no-1-stock-fund-manager-is-11562638561?mod=flipboard

IWP is the iShare Russell Mid Cap Growth

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09-2019_21

A WORD OF WARNING FROM KIPLINGER’S

Although I’m a user of Angie’s List, Kiplinger’s says to take the recommendations with a grain of salt.

“Angie’s List was founded in 1995 to help consumers pick reliable home-service providers. But in 2017 when it was bought by the same company that owns homeadvisor.com, it changed the way it does business. Now, instead of charging an annual fee, Angie’s List is free — it’s funded almost entirely by advertising and referral fees from the companies it evaluates. A recent report from the nonprofit Consumer Federation of America (www.consumerfed.org) explains how that arrangement undermines the usefulness of the ratings and the ‘short list of top-rated pros’ users receive.

CFA recommends that if you use Angie’s List read the detailed consumer comments for A-rated businesses with at least 25 comments, and pay extra attention to comments that are negative…. Always double-check a pro’s reputation with the Better Business Bureau (www.bbb.org), ask to see proof of licensing and insurance, and check references.”

 

PONDERISMS

From my special friend Patti

  • Why do peanuts float in a regular Coke and sink in a Diet Coke? Go ahead and try it.
  • Why do you have to “put your two cents in” but it’s only a “penny for your thoughts?” Where’s that extra penny going?
  • What disease did cured ham actually have?
  • How is it that we put man on the moon before we figured out it would be a good idea to put wheels on luggage?
  • Why is it that people say they “slept like a baby” when babies wake up like every two hours?
  • Why are you IN a movie, but you’re ON TV?
  • Why do toasters always have a setting that burns the toast to a horrible crisp, which no decent human being would eat?
  • Why do the Alphabet song and Twinkle, Twinkle Little Star have the same tune?
  • Why did you just try singing the two songs above?
  • How did the man who made the first clock know what time it was?

 

POT CALLING THE KETTLE BLACK?

Don’t Listen to Your Market Guru

In his Real Money column Tuesday morning, Cramer had some advice for investors who are listening to market pundits and basing their stock picks or trades off of them. Cramer’s take? Make up your own mind.

Here’s a snippet of what Cramer has to say about those who are following the words of a market pundit. “I am simply saying that once again we listened to a guru — a word I hate — and the guru was full of sound and fury but signifying nothing having to do with the stock market.”

https://www.thestreet.com/video/jim-cramer-earnings-season-apple-snap-15028757?puc=_htmltsc_pla1&cm_ven=EMAIL_htmltsc&tstmem=165571391&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TSC&utm_term=BREAKING+NEWS%3A+Don%27t+Trust+the+Market+Gurus%3A+Jim+Cramer+on+Earnings%2C+Apple+and+Snap+-+Live+at+10+a.m.+ET

 

UNCLE HAROLD’S BARN GOOD CHIPS

They’re not just good, they’re GREAT! (sorry, no sample)

09-2019_22

UPSIDE DOWN

A Danish bank is offering mortgages at a 0.5% negative interest rate — meaning it is basically paying people to borrow money

“Jyske Bank, Denmark’s third-largest bank, said this week that customers would now be able to take out a 10-year fixed-rate mortgage with an interest rate of -0.5%, meaning customers will pay back less than the amount they borrowed…Many investors fear a substantial crash in the near future. As such, some banks are willing to lend money at negative rates, accepting a small loss rather than risking a bigger loss by lending money at higher rates that customers cannot meet.”

https://www.businessinsider.com/danish-bank-offers-mortgages-at-negative-interest-rates-2019-8

 

MORE OLD PICTURES

If you’re old enough to remember who these people are – from Peter

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Hope you enjoyed this issue, and I look forward to “seeing you” again.

_HRE SIGNATURE

Harold Evensky

Chairman

Evensky & Katz / Foldes Financial Wealth Management

 

For previous issues:

NewsLetter Vol. 12, No. 4 – July 2019

NewsLetter Vol. 12, No. 3 – May 2019

 

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosure
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Evensky & Katz / Foldes Financial Wealth Management (“EK-FF”), or any non-investment-related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from EK-FF. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. EK-FF is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of EK-FF’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request. Please Note: If you are an EK-FF client, please remember to contact EK-FF, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. EK-FF shall continue to rely on the accuracy of information that you have provided.

 

 

The retirement opportunity you may be missing: The SEP IRA

Marcos- cropped

Marcos A. Segrera, CFP® Financial Advisor

It is very common for workers to generate some form of income outside of their primary occupation. You may have a full-time job but still seek an opportunity to generate additional income. The extra money could be a potential opportunity to increase retirement savings. A Simplified Employee Pension IRA (SEP IRA) offers an easy and inexpensive way to set this up.

A SEP IRA is an employer-sponsored retirement plan. Contributions can only be made by the employer on behalf of its employees. In this case, you are the employer and the employee. If you do have employees (other than yourself), you need to be aware that anyone who works for the company will be entitled to contributions.

The process for establishing a SEP IRA is fairly straightforward, and you can open this type of account at most brokerages. Once the account is open, contributions are tax deductible for the business. However, no salary deferrals or catch-up contributions are allowed in a SEP IRA.

Once in the IRA, the funds are like any other IRA funds and subject to the same rules. They immediately belong to the employee and you can do whatever you want with them. You could even take an immediate distribution, although this is not recommended. The distribution will be taxable and subject to a 10% early withdrawal penalty if taken before age 59.5, unless an IRS-approved exception applies.

One of the advantages of a SEP IRA over a traditional IRA is the larger contribution limit. For 2019, the limit is the lesser of 25% of compensation or $56,000. This dwarfs the 2019 traditional IRA limit of $6,000 plus $1,000 catch-up if over age 50. SEP contributions can be made up to the due date of your tax return, including extensions. For example, a 2019 SEP contribution can be made up until April 15, 2020 or October 15, 2020 if you filed an extension. Contributions are not required to be made every year, so it provides flexibility if the income you are generating outside of your primary occupation is low or you simply do not want to contribute.

The last piece of good news is that you are able to contribute to a SEP IRA even if you participate in a retirement plan at your main job. You can also fully fund a Roth IRA or traditional IRA up to the allowed limits. Keep in mind that the deductibility of a traditional IRA contribution and ability to contribute to a Roth IRA will phase out depending on your annual income.

Bottom line, if you have a side gig or are self-employed, you could take advantage of the SEP IRA option to increase your overall retirement savings. Be sure to consult with your financial advisor and accountant to see if this is a good option for you.

Feel free to reach out to Marcos by phone 305.448.8882 extension 212 or email: MSegrera@Evensky.com

Resources:

https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/retirement-plans-faqs-regarding-seps-contributions

https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/accounts_products/accounts/small_business_retirement/sep_ira

https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-tax-on-early-distributions

https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/retirement_and_planning/understanding_iras

Just inherited an IRA? Take a moment to consider your options

Marcos- cropped

Marcos A. Segrera, CFP® Financial Advisor

Have you or will you inherit an IRA from someone that is not your spouse?

This is not uncommon. Roughly 42 million US households own some type of IRA. So odds are you know someone other than your spouse who owns an IRA. Play your cards right and you could be a named beneficiary.

If you inherit a Traditional, Rollover, SEP, or SIMPLE IRA from a friend or family member (NOT A SPOUSE), you have several options, depending on whether the account holder was under or over age 70.5 .

If the account holder was under 70.5, here are your choices:

  1. Open an Inherited IRA and use the Life Expectancy Method
    1. Rollover (transfer) the assets into an inherited IRA held in your name. You can open the inherited IRA at places like Charles Schwab, TD Ameritrade, Fidelity, etc. You must begin required minimum distributions no later than 12/31 of the year after the account holder died. Required minimum distributions (RMDs) are mandatory as per the IRS and you are taxed (ordinary income) on each distribution. You will use the IRS Single Life Expectancy Table to determine your annual RMD. Take the value of the account at the end of last year, divide it by the number corresponding with your age on the table and voila. Assuming the account is invested, the undistributed assets can continue to grow tax-deferred. You are also able to name your own beneficiary.
  1. Open an Inherited IRA and distribute within 5 years
    1. Rollover (transfer) the assets into an inherited IRA held in your name. You can open the inherited IRA at places like Charles Schwab, TD Ameritrade, Fidelity, etc. In this case no need to take RMDs. However, the full account value must be distributed by 12/31 of the fifth year after the account holder died. You will need to pay ordinary income taxes on the amount distributed. Undistributed assets can continue to grow tax-deferred for up to five years. You are also able to name your own beneficiary.
  1. Lump sum distribution
    1. Exactly like it sounds, you take a full distribution from the deceased’s IRA and pay all the taxes now. No opportunity for tax-deferred growth. You may move to a higher income bracket depending on the amount of the distribution and your current income level.

If the account holder was over 70.5, here are your choices:

  1. Open an Inherited IRA and use the Life Expectancy Method
    1. Same as above with one detail to note. If the original account holder did not take an RMD in the year of death, an RMD must be taken from the account by 12/31 of the year the original account holder died.

  1. Lump sum distribution
    1. Exactly like it sounds, you take a full distribution from the deceased’s IRA and pay all the taxes now. No opportunity for tax-deferred growth. You may move to a higher income bracket depending on the amount of the distribution and your current income level.

Although your individual circumstances must be taken into account, we typically find the greatest opportunity offered to a non-spouse beneficiary is the ability to open your own inherited IRA and allow the undistributed amount to grow tax-deferred over time. The added flexibility of being able to name your own beneficiary means that this account could stretch significantly beyond your own lifetime and continue growing and providing for future generations. In fact, many IRA owners planning for the future use the stretch feature as a way to comfortably provide for their child’s retirement through the power of tax-deferred compounding.

Sounds wonderful? We agree. Unfortunately, this flexibility may be put to an end with the passing of the SECURE Act (Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act). This legislation, that has already been passed by the House, would kill the stretch provision for non-spouse beneficiaries. The SECURE ACT would require non-spouse beneficiaries to pull out all of the money held in the Inherited IRA within 10 years. The effect would make more of an IRA subject to higher taxes sooner.  We would hate to see such a great planning opportunity be put to bed but we will have to wait on Congress to see where we end up. Don’t hold your breathe.

Do you think you may be inheriting an IRA? Stay tuned or feel free to reach out with questions.

Happy investing.

Marcos

 

Feel free to reach out to Marcos by phone 305.448.8882 extension 212 or email: MSegrera@Evensky.com

 

 

Resources:

https://www.irs.gov/publications/p590b#en_US_2018_publink1000231236

https://www.ici.org/policy/retirement/plan/ira/faqs_iras

https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/retirement_and_planning/understanding_iras/inherited_ira/withdrawal_rules

 

NewsLetter Vol. 12, No. 4 – July 2019

HRE Headshot_01-2019

Harold Evensky CFP® , AIF® Chairman

DEAR READER,

 

SUCCOTASH

Mixing vegetables together may be fine for food (although it’s not my favorite), but it’s nonsense in the investment world. When you hire a money manager (e.g., a mutual fund), do you really care how good his or her sibling managers are if he or she is awful? Do your due diligence on the fund, not the family.

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THE LEAST EXPENSIVE U.S. CITIES FOR RETIREES

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Y’all come!

https://www.thestreet.com/personal-finance/real-estate/least-expensive-us-cities-for-retirees-14956443

 

ON THE OTHER HAND…DEPRESSING

Florida is the No. 1 state for fraud and the No. 4 for identity theft. Florida was the top state for formal reports of fraud to the federal government in 2018. Floridians made about 205,400 fraud reports last year, amounting to an average loss of $400.

 

https://www.floridatrend.com/article/26849/wednesdays-afternoon-update

 

MOUTH AGAPE FROZEN

Also balderdash and horsepucky!

From InvestmentNews:

SEC commissioner Hester Peirce said the proposal to raise advice requirements for brokers will result in a standard for them that is stronger than the fiduciary duty investment advisers must meet.

“We have this new standard, which is something more than suitability,” Ms. Peirce said at an Institute for Portfolio Alternatives conference in Washington on Tuesday. “When you lay it side-to-side against the fiduciary standard, I think one could argue that it’s a stronger standard because it does require mitigation or elimination of conflicts in a way the fiduciary standard does not.”

I won’t bother to detail what insulting nonsense this is, but I would be happy to chat with anyone who is interested. Alternatively, ask any knowledgeable attorney how the “new suitability” standard can possibly be stronger than the RIA standard of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.

It obviously begs the question: if it is indeed a stronger standard, why does the brokerage industry spend millions of dollars trying to prevent the enactment of a fiduciary standard? Why not just make brokers subject to the ’40 Act? A cheap and simple solution.

https://www.investmentnews.com/article/20190508/FREE/190509930/sec-commissioner-hester-peirce-says-reg-bi-is-stronger-than

 

SAY IT ISN’T SO!

Classic Board Game Monopoly Gets a Modern Makeover Using Digital Technology to Go Cashless

  • Hasbro created a version that uses digital assistant technology like Amazon Echo.
  • The technology is set to make cheating in the board game a thing of the past.
  • Monopoly will be a voice-activated banker, broadcast from a smart speaker.
  • Playing pieces will each have a button so the players can activate transactions.

Cashless??!! That’s not Monopoly!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7177397/Classic-board-game-Monopoly-gets-modern-makeover-using-digital-technology-CASHLESS.html

 

MAKING MONKEYS OUT OF SOME INVESTING GURUS*

More picking on active managers reported in the Wall Street Journal:

No animals were harmed in this financial experiment, but some human egos were bruised…

The results were brutal. Heard columnists, not monkeys, threw the darts at newspaper stock listings…. The columnists’ eight long and two short picks beat the pros’ selections by a stinging 22 percentage points in the year through April 22. Only 4 of 12 of the Sohn picks even outperformed the S&P 500.

*Wall Street’s best and brightest investors participate in this unique, “must attend” event to share their expertise with an audience of more than 3,000 people, comprised of portfolio managers, asset allocators and private investors. Most speakers manage large proprietary investment portfolios that have outperformed the market for many years and do not share their insights in any public forum, but they volunteer their time to The Sohn Investment Conference for the benefit of The Foundation.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/making-monkeys-out-of-the-sohn-investing-gurus-11557115260

 

WHO KNEW?

From Forbes:

Those oh-so-handy USB power charging stations in the airport may come with a cost you can’t see. Cybercriminals can modify those USB connections to install malware on your phone or download data without your knowledge.

“Plugging into a public USB port is kind of like finding a toothbrush on the side of the road and deciding to stick it in your mouth. You have no idea where that thing has been,” says Caleb Barlow, Vice President of X-Force Threat Intelligence at IBM Security. “And remember that that USB port can pass data.”

It’s much safer to bring your regular charger along and plug it into a wall outlet or, alternatively, bring a portable power bank to recharge your phone when you’re low on bars.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2019/05/21/why-you-should-never-use-airport-usb-charging-stations/#4d7456495955

 

INVESTORS SEEM TO BE CATCHING ON

From Morningstar:

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https://fundflows.morningstar.com/fundflows/marketsummary.aspx

 

MORE KATIE

Our partner Katie continues to learn about Lubbock infrastructure. She got to drive the airport fire truck, shoot the 19-inch hose and shoot a Taser at the police department. (“Luckily my suspect was cardboard and not moving!”)

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SOME GOOD ADVICE FROM VANGUARD

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Changing Market Leadership

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Positive International Outlook

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Volatility Reduction

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https://advisors.vanguard.com/iwe/pdf/FAWHYINT.pdf

 

GUESS WHO’S OLDER THAN DIRT

17 out of 17!

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AND IF I HAD ANY DOUBT

From The Hollywood Reporter:

It’s not just a game for the 250 million players who are eschewing traditional social media, Netflix and other leisure activities in favor of community events like Marshmello’s virtual concert.

Fortnite isn’t just a game—it’s also social media. So says a study from National Research Group, which provides a telling snapshot of the new attention economy. Fortnite players spend more of their free time logging into the battle royale game than they do scrolling through Facebook and Instagram or streaming on Netflix and YouTube.

In the two years since its July 2017 launch, Fortnite has grown into a global phenomenon with more than 250 million active players (82 percent under age 35) and $2.4 billion in annual revenue. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings was onto something when he noted in January that the streamer “competes (and loses) more with Fortnite than with HBO.” According to NRG, Fortnite players spend 21 percent of their free time with the game.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/fortnite-eclipses-facebook-instagram-as-tweens-preferred-social-platform-1217335

And I’ve never even heard of Fortnite! I’m definitely older than dirt!

 

BUFFETT ON GOLD

From Investment Advisor:

Buffett made his first investment, of $114.75, in 1942. In a no-fee S&P 500 index fund with dividends reinvested, that money would have grown to $606,811. The same amount invested in 3¼ ounces of gold would now be worth about $4,200. That’s “less than 1% of what would have been realized from a simple unmanaged investment in American business,” says Buffett. “The magical metal was no match for the American mettle.”

 

BEWARE

From CNN:

If you get a call from an unfamiliar number that rings once and hangs up, don’t call back. The Federal Communications Commission is warning people about a new phone scam, which they’re calling the “one ring” or Wangiri scam. (Wangiri is Japanese for “one ring and drop.”)

The scam works like this: A scammer places a robocall to a number and hangs up after one or two rings. They may call back several times. The idea is to get the caller to call the number back. When they do, the caller is prompted to pay long distance fees to connect the call, fees that are usually paid in part to the scammer.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/07/us/fcc-robocall-scheme-scam-warning-trnd/index.html

 

WOW!!

The Indian Army says it found yeti footprints in the Himalayas. Stay tuned—the Loch Ness monster and Golden Asteroids are next.

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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/indian-army-says-it-found-yeti-footprints-himalayas-n999951

 

PLACES TO GO

DEPARTURES –  CITY GUIDES

https://www.departures.com/city-guides/barcelona

https://www.departures.com/city-guides/paris

https://www.departures.com/city-guides/london

https://www.departures.com/city-guides/new-york-city

https://www.departures.com/city-guides/rome

https://www.departures.com/city-guides/lisbon

https://www.departures.com/city-guides/tel-aviv

 

SOME GOOD NEWS

From Wealth Management:

N.J. Governor Vetoes Bill Saying Insurance Agents Are Not Fiduciaries

Gov. Phil Murphy said the bill runs counter to the state’s efforts to improve consumer protections, including its recent fiduciary rule proposal for financial advisors.

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy has been an outspoken proponent of the state’s proposed fiduciary rule, which he called “some of the strongest investor protections in the nation.” So when a state bill was passed that would eliminate a fiduciary standard for insurance producers, he, naturally, vetoed it…

He recommended the legislature remove section 1 of the bill, which “prohibits a cause of action against an insurance producer arising from transactions involving property and casualty insurance or a health benefits plan where the cause of action is based on a fiduciary duty.” He believes that will also leave it open for lawmakers to impose a fiduciary duty on insurance producers.

He also suggests the removal of the third section of the bill, which would require the insurance agent to notify clients that information about their compensation is available, rather than disclose that information to the client directly. And they’d have to include only information about compensation that’s based on a percentage of the premium.

A recently proposed rule by the state’s Bureau of Securities would require all financial advisors registered in the state to act as fiduciaries, making New Jersey one of the first states to propose a uniform fiduciary standard for all financial services professionals.

The rule would apply to recommendations on investments; opening or transferring assets into any kind of account; and the purchase, sale or exchange of any security. A broker or advisor has to make “reasonable inquiry” in the best interest of their client, and any recommendations offered cannot be made with regard to a financial interest of the broker, advisor or any other third party.

The SEC has said it intends to release a final rule on its Regulation Best Interest this fall. This regulation is expected to require more robust disclosure procedures to ensure that brokers are acting in the “best interest” of a client, though critics contend this would fall short of the fiduciary duty demanded of investment advisors; New Jersey’s rule stressed that disclosing conflicts alone would not suffice in protecting investors.”

https://www.wealthmanagement.com/regulation-compliance/nj-governor-vetoes-bill-saying-insurance-agents-are-not-fiduciaries

 

COOL TIP

From One Mile at a Time:

Using FlightAware to check inbound flight status

There’s one cool hack that many people aren’t aware of that makes this really easy. FlightAware is a flight tracking website, and it will also show you where your plane is coming from. Just enter the flight number for your journey.

Then when you see the map for your flight, on the right side you should see a section that says “track inbound plane.” Just click that, and you’ll see where the plane is coming from.

https://onemileatatime.com/track-inbound-plane/

 

DEPRESSING

Journal of Financial Planning Stat Bank:

65…Percent of people surveyed who said they mistrust the financial services industry to some degree.

2…Percent of people surveyed who said they trust financial professionals “a lot.” (We work hard to be in that 2%.)

21…Percent of people who understand the difference between a planner who is a fiduciary and one who is not. (I hope regular readers of my NewsLetter know the difference!)

50…Percent of investors who work with a financial advisor who know for certain their advisor is a fiduciary. (I hope my readers and our clients know that we are fiduciaries.)

 

YOU READ IT HERE FIRST!

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https://www.foxnews.com/tech/loch-ness-monster-might-be-real-according-to-new-scientific-study

 

AND IF THE YETI AND LOCH NESS MONSTER DON’T GET YOU EXCITED, HERE’S AN ITEM FROM DAVID THAT MIGHT

07-2019_13.png

The Golden Asteroid That Could Make Everyone on Earth a Billionaire

Whether it was the Big Bang, Midas or God himself, we don’t really need to unlock the mystery of the origins of gold when we’ve already identified an asteroid worth $700 quintillion in precious heavy metals.

If anything launches this metals mining space race, it will be this asteroid—Psyche 16, which is somewhere between Mars and Jupiter and carries around enough heavy metals to net every single person on the planet close to a trillion dollars.

The massive quantities of gold, iron and nickel contained in this asteroid are mind-blowing. The discovery has been made. Now it’s a question of probing it.

NASA plans to do just that, beginning in 2022.

https://www.rt.com/business/462703-golden-asteroid-everyone-billionaire/

 

SNAKE OIL SELLS

My partner Lane shared an interesting marketing piece with me.

Investment Strategies

Defensive Alpha

Our Defensive Alpha portfolios aim to reduce market drawdowns without sacrificing participation in rising markets. These strategies seek to invest in a global allocation of market blend indices during rising markets, but attempt to exit to defensive, low volatility stocks in the early stages of market declines. When markets rebound, the portfolios are expected to return to a growth posture.

Unconstrained Tactical

Our Unconstrained Tactical strategies attempt to track global allocations of market blend indices during rising markets, but seek to exit to cash or more stable fixed income assets as prices start to move lower. When markets begin to rebound, the portfolios attempt to return to fully invested positions. Because these strategies seek to exit to cash, they are a means of attempting to gain access to above inflation returns with robust loss avoidance.

 

I’m obviously a massive skeptic. The key words are attempts and seeks—“attempts to exit” and “attempts to track” and “attempts to return” and “attempting to gain” and “seeks to exit.” With an eye on possible customer complaints, there are no promises here, but lots of attempting and seeking.

In the last few hundred years, no manager has done this successfully over long periods of time, but I guess hope springs eternal. We’re still passionate believers that successful investing is not timing the market but time in the market.

 

COOL HISTORY

 

 

PERCEPTION vs. REALITY:

Causes of Death in the United States

07-2019_24.png

NOT SURE IF I COULD BRING MYSELF TO EAT THEM—MAYBE IF IT WAS A BOTTLE OF WINE

Two melons sold at a Japanese auction for $45,000

07-2019_25.png

https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/two-melons-sold-at-japanese-auction-for-45k-to-first-time-bidder-report

CAVEAT EMPTOR

From Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal:

A New Rule Won’t Make Your Broker an Angel

All brokers and financial advisers have conflicts of interest. New regulations, no matter how well intended, can’t change that.

Next week, the Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to approve a rule that will require brokers to act in the best interest of their customers—rather than their own wallets—when offering investment advice. That’s good, so far as it goes.

It probably won’t go far enough, however. The new rule is also likely to lead many investors to drop their guard, in the misguided belief their brokers now can do no wrong. And it may create a marketing bonanza for brokers and investment advisers…

The most immediate result, I expect, will be to weaponize the marketing pitch that brokers have used for so long: “Trust me.” The corollary now will be: “The U.S. government requires me to act in your best interest.” That new clincher will act like kryptonite on the skepticism or objections that many customers otherwise might have mustered.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-new-rule-wont-make-your-broker-an-angel-11559313036

 

DO YOUR HOMEWORK—A SHORT LESSON IN DUE DILIGENCE

I recently received an email touting the Ampersand Fund. The “headline” was certainly impressive.

07-2019_26.png

Looking a little further, I found it was honestly labeled a Morningstar 5 Star fund.

07-2019_27.png

I also found it had indeed outperformed the S&P for 5-month for 2019 through 5/31/2019.

07-2019_28.png

It also significantly outperformed its Morningstar category peers.

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And on an after-tax basis, the difference is magnified.

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How about managing risk? The fund’s website says “Objective: An innovative fund solution that aims to achieve returns and volatility comparable to the S&P 500® Total Return Index [that’s the IVV iShare], while seeking to avoid the full impact of downside risk.”

While it’s true that it tracks the volatility of the S&P (standard deviation), on a risk-adjusted basis (Sharpe Ratio), it fails.

And as for “avoiding the full impact of downside risk,” not so much so during the most recent correction.

07-2019_33.png

The moral? Caveat emptor. Do your homework. Don’t make your investments based on Morningstar Star “Stars” or clever ads.

 

MORE “WHO KNEW?”

From USA Today:

States With the Most UFO Sightings: Vermont Leads the Way

UFO reporting levels vary by state. In states with cold winters, sightings increase dramatically during summer months, when more residents are spending their leisure time outdoors. The five states with the most reported UFO sightings per 100,000 people are all northern states, and three of them—Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine—are located in New England. By comparison, UFO reports don’t fluctuate much during the year in southern states, where weather and daylight conditions don’t vary as much.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/06/19/states-with-the-most-ufo-sightings/39306977/

 

MORE AMAZING PICTURES

From my friend Peter:

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FOR THE ACADEMIC-MINDED

This is admittedly a bit heavy, but those of you who are familiar with my writing know I’m a passionate fan of behavioral economics, as I believe it explains most of the issues our clients deal with in investing. This is such a good example that I thought an excerpt would be worth sharing.

How Active Management Survives

J.B. Heaton, Ginger L. Pennington; Financial Planning Review

Abstract

There is much evidence that passive equity strategies dominate active equity management, but many investors remain committed to active investing despite its poor relative performance. We explore the behavioral‐economic hypothesis that investors fall prey to the conjunction fallacy, believing good returns are more likely if investment is accompanied by hard work. This is an especially plausible manifestation of the conjunction fallacy, because in most areas of life, hard work leads to greater success than laziness. Our internet survey results show that from 30% to over 60% of higher‐income, over‐30 individuals fall prey to the conjunction fallacy in this context, raising significant questions for law and regulatory policy, including whether actively managed equity products should carry warnings, at least for retail investors. [They don’t mince words.]

Belief in a “just world” is a second psychological factor that may explain the strong subjective appeal of a causal association between financial success and active investment. The “just world hypothesis” asserts that people have a strong desire to view the world as a fair, predictable place—a place in which a person’s merit and her fate are closely intertwined, and where hard work can be expected to yield just rewards (Lerner, 1980). While a large amount of research on the just world hypothesis focuses on harmful societal effects of this belief (that is, victim blaming), other work examines the influence of just world beliefs on decision‐making. Decision makers with a strong belief in the association between hard work and success tend to engage in a range of counter‐productive behaviors, spending excessive amounts of time reaching a decision and distorting perceptions of alternatives in a way that unnecessarily complicates choice (Schrift et al., 2016).

The psychological tendency to believe in a just world influences investors on multiple levels…it encourages investors to overcomplicate what should be a relatively simple decision problem—believing that a more complex investment scheme is necessary to achieve good outcomes. This last point may go far in explaining the efforts to which some leading hedge funds go to give an appearance of hiring the “best and the brightest” even when their investment results are inconsistent with the value of that practice.

The confluence of illusions of control and just world beliefs probably leads investors to accept the idea of a causal link between traders’ work and financial success. When asked to assess the likelihood of achieving financial gains in the stock market, investors employ these feelings as relevant information, judging success to be more likely with an active management. Using very brief surveys, we presented approximately 1,000 adults with a choice judgment task to test for the emergence of the conjunctive fallacy. Similar to Tversky and Kahneman’s heart attack problem,* we expected respondents to find the joint outcome more probable, due to feelings of fluency invoked by the assumed causal relationship…

The most straightforward test of our hypothesis was conducted with a sample of 1,004 individuals, roughly 57% male (n = 572) and 43% female (n = 431). All participants were above the age of 30 (roughly 34% between the ages of 45 and 60 and 41% over age 60), with household incomes in excess of $100,000 (20% of the sample earned over $200,000/year). This is the first question presented to that sample:

ABC Fund invests in common stocks listed on United States stock exchanges. Which is more likely?

(1) ABC Fund will earn a good return this year for its investors.

(2) ABC Fund will earn a good return this year for its investors and ABC Fund employs investment analysts who work hard to identify the best stocks for ABC Fund to invest in.

This question evoked a strong manifestation of the conjunction fallacy, with 62.8% selecting choice (2). This rate is on par with the magnitude of bias found in past studies using this problem structure. By comparison, the “heart attack” problem in Tversky and Kahneman (1983) produced a 58% error rate.*

*The conjunction fallacy emerges even in contexts that are not amenable to that explanation, namely, those in which little to no background information has been provided to participants. In one such demonstration, Tversky and Kahneman asked participants to consider the likelihood of a randomly selected adult male having suffered a heart attack. Participants were instructed to choose which statement was more likely:

(1) This person has had one or more heart attacks.

(2) This person has had one or more heart attacks and is over 55 years of age.

The majority of respondents selected the second option. Despite choice (1) being logically more probable, the addition of age‐related information to choice (2) lends it an air of enhanced plausibility. This is because choice (2) suggests a causal explanation that is consistent with both participants’ prior knowledge and objective reality (that is, the risk of heart attack does, in fact, increase with age). Qualitatively, choice (2) “feels” more likely to participants.

You can read the whole paper here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cfp2.1031

Now go back and look at the graph PERCEPTION vs. REALITY: Causes of Death in the United States for another example of Behavioral Economics.

Hope you enjoyed this issue, and I look forward to “seeing you” again.

_HRE SIGNATURE

Harold Evensky

Chairman

Evensky & Katz / Foldes Financial Wealth Management

 

For Previous Issues:

NewsLetter Vol. 12, No. 3 – May 2019

NewsLetter Vol. 12, No. 2 – March 2019

 

www.Evensky.com

 

 

Important Disclosure
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Evensky & Katz / Foldes Financial Wealth Management (“EK-FF”), or any non-investment-related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from EK-FF. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. EK-FF is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of EK-FF’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request. Please Note: If you are an EK-FF client, please remember to contact EK-FF, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. EK-FF shall continue to rely on the accuracy of information that you have provided.

 

Thoughts on Transferring Wealth to the Next Generation

Roxanne Alexander

Roxanne Alexander, CAIA, CFP®, AIF®, ADPA® Senior Financial Advisor

Lately, clients have been asking if we wouldn’t mind having a conversation with their kids about planning for future wealth transfer, as well as helping their children learn how to save and become financially independent. The decision as to whether to talk to your children and when is very personal, so there is no right answer. Every family has their differences, and views on money can be disparate, but having a conversation in advance can prevent future mistakes and confusion within the family. If you have open communication lines with your kids and don’t mind them knowing about the assets you have, bringing up this topic sooner rather than later can be advantageous.

First, decide how much information you want to reveal and what you would like to accomplish or instill in your children. Sometimes it may make sense to involve your financial advisor or estate attorney, who can be a sounding board and an intermediary when explaining types of accounts, estate documents, and other investment questions that may arise. Having a discussion about current beneficiaries, where accounts are located, and the purpose for each type of account is important. For example, if a child inherits an IRA or 401K account, there can be huge tax consequences if the child takes out all the funds at once.

Family Dynamics

If there are several children and grandchildren involved, usually most parents try to be fair. If you pass away and leave more money to one child than the other, since you helped one more while you were alive, communicating this decision in advance may prevent conflict. Also, discussing which assets would be best given to whom may make splitting assets smoother in the future. It may be more efficient in some cases to leave a house to a child that lives in the same location versus to a child who lives in another country. There may be certain tax advantages to leaving an IRA to one child versus another. If one child is struggling and paying for grandkids’ college and also thinking about buying a house, and you really want to pay for this, leaving only IRA assets to that child would cause them to have to take out funds and pay taxes prematurely, in comparison to another child that may be more financially stable and does not need the cash now.

Business Succession

If you are passing on generations of wealth from a family business, you may want to discuss how the money was made and explain the family legacy. If the family business is still active, communicating with your children about how you expect the business to continue may be important. One of our clients had a great idea. He wrote a book about his life for his grandkids and future generations. He added various pictures and life stories such as his first car and first girlfriend, and how he started in his profession.

Charitable Giving

If you are involved in charitable causes, this may be an opportune time to explain the importance of having philanthropy continue into the next generation. If you have a very strong inclination to give back to a specific cause because of a past experience, when your kids understand that decision they may be more inclined to remain involved in that cause once you are gone. One way of doing this could be to set up a charitable fund and have your kids as beneficiaries, but to discuss the purpose of the funds in advance.

Special Needs

If you are dealing with a child with special needs, it is important to have a conversation with other siblings or family members regarding your wishes when you are gone. If the plan was to have another sibling take care of the child with special needs, communicating and planning for this in advance can prevent future surprises. Assuming that a sibling wants to take responsibility as trustee or guardian for another sibling may end up in disaster. If you set up a trust with a sibling as trustee and they resign, you may end up with a corporate trustee making the decisions.

Continuing the Plan

Since your financial plan was put in place to make sure you are secure throughout your lifetime, if significant assets are projected to be left behind, continuity with your financial plan may be another topic for discussion. If your kids are all well off, planning for grandkids and future generations may now be your goal. Having a discussion with your advisor along with the family will help you make better decisions about how to plan for the future. Keep in mind that this should be revisited when there are changes in the tax laws or if there are changes in the family such as a marriage, divorce or new grandchild.

Feel free to reach out to Roxanne Alexander if you have any questions by email: RAlexander@Evensky.com or phone: 305.448.8882 extension #236.

www.Evensky.com

How to Navigate Between Private Foundations and Donor-Advised Funds

Kristin Fang

Danqin Fang, CFP®, CFA Financial Advisor

There are more tools now available to help you plan your charitable giving. The two most popular vehicles are private foundations and donor-advised funds (DAFs). While they are both designed to accomplish the same goal, namely of getting funds to charitable causes you care most about, they each come with a different set of pros and cons based on their different structures, tax rules, privacy, and flexibility levels.

Private Foundations

These are independent tax-exempt 501(c)(3) legal organizations, established by individuals, families, or corporations with public charitable missions. The board of directors or trustees and officers are responsible for such foundations’ three main duties: 1) Operational management, 2) Asset investment, and 3) Grant decisions. As its own legal entity, a private foundation provides its management board of great flexibility in grant making activities and total control over investments. However, this also comes with additional legal and recordkeeping responsibilities, with the need to comply with a set of more stringent tax rules. Before jumping into this powerful tool, it is prudent to weigh up all of the limitations and the level of commitment required.

Donor-Advised Funds (DAFs)

On the contrary, DAFs have gained increasing popularity in recent years by complementing what private foundations can do[i]. DAFs are charitable investment accounts established within a public charity that is affiliated with a community foundation, a financial institution, or other sponsoring organizations. Such funds were first addressed and defined in the Pension Protection Act of 2006[ii]. Donors who contribute assets to a DAF are eligible for immediate tax deductions. The contributions grow tax-free and are available for grants directed by donors at any time to any IRS-qualified public charities. While not offering the same grant-making flexibility as private foundations, DAFs provide an efficient solution for donors who want to outsource grant-making due diligence and the extensive administration of running a private foundation.

Comparisons and Planning Opportunities

  • Ease of setting up? DAFs win

DAFs are easy to set up as donors simply fill out account applications for the sponsoring organizations, without any cost associated, and then the accounts will be ready to use in just a few days. However, to set up a private foundation, the donor must first make a filing with the state to establish a trust or corporation and then apply to the IRS to ensure it is eligible, which can be a time-consuming and cost-burdensome process.

  • Independently managed? Private Foundations win

As a separate legal entity, a private foundation can appoint a board of directors and hire officers, including family members, to administrate the foundation, and the ultimate control over the foundation’s assets and the flexibility of its operations. However, A DAF is simply an account managed by a sponsoring organization, over which the donor has limited control regarding the account management, investments, and grant-making directions.

  • Preferred tax treatment? DAFs win

A wide variety of assets can be contributed to DAFs and the IRS allows a deduction of up to 60% of the donor’s Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) for cash gifts and up to 30% AGI for the fair market value of appreciated assets if held over one year, either for publicly or non-publicly traded assets. However, the deduction limit for private foundations is capped at 30% AGI for cash gifts and 20% AGI for appreciated assets. Even better, there is no excise tax on the annual income of DAF investments while generally a 1–2% federal excise tax is levied on a foundation’s annual investment income.[iii]

  • Investment control? Private Foundations win

Donors or the board of directors of private foundations can appoint investment advisors or can self-direct any investments they think prudent for their foundations. However, the investment options of DAFs are more limited for donors to choose from because they need to be approved and listed by the sponsoring organizations. Sometimes exceptions are made for higher account balance DAFs to include outside advisors.

  • Grant-making control? Private Foundations win

Private foundations donors have full control over the distributions of grants. There are no restrictions on the types of charities (either domestic or foreign) that can receive gifts, and even individuals can receive grants from private foundations, such as scholarships. However, DAF donors can only direct grants to eligible public charities approved by sponsoring organizations because these sponsors take on due diligence and legal compliance duties.

  • Distribution requirements? DAFs win

The “qualifying distributions” rule requires private foundations to grant 5% of the fair market value of its assets to other charities each year. However, there is no such requirement for DAFs and such donors can make grants anytime they like.

  • Privacy matters? DAFs win

The sponsoring organizations of DAFs can submit IRS form 990 with individual donor records kept private, so DAF donors can choose to grant anonymously should they wish. However, private foundation must complete a 990-PF tax form, which requires all contributions and grants to be part of the public record.

  • Recordkeeping and expenses? DAFs win

DAFs offer consolidated recordkeeping and tax reporting through the sponsoring organizations, and the fund administration and investment fees are charged to the accounts proportionate to their sizes. However, as an independent legal entity, a private foundation is responsible for all its own legal, accounting, tax reporting, investment management, and staffing operations expenses.

  • Successor election? DAFs win

Donors can simply name other individuals or charities as successors in their DAF accounts, whereas private foundations require the board of directors to vote for successors.

There is no one-size-fits-all solution to carry out your philanthropic mission. To plan well, it’s important to start by asking the right questions to help understand your priorities. For example:

  • Do you have a specific or a broad range of causes you’d like to support?
  • Which charities would you like to support? Are there any foreign charities or individuals?
  • Who will decide on grant making? Is flexibility in investment control important to you?
  • Do you want to make anonymous grants?
  • Will the different tax treatments of each charitable vehicle have a significant impact on your specific situation?
  • Do you want to donate in cash or highly appreciated assets?

 

Complementing a private foundation with a DAF

Sometimes choosing only one between a private foundation or a DAF is not always the best option, instead, a strategy to include both may be necessary. Establishing a DAF to complement a private foundation can be very effective because you can make grants with flexibility and control investments using private foundations, while at the same time, you can use DAFs to solve situations where you want to make anonymous awards to certain controversial causes you’d like to support, and to take advantage of DAFs’ favorable tax treatment for donating highly appreciated assets, etc.

Conclusion

On your journey to become a more successful philanthropist, it is important to utilize the most efficient and effective strategies to achieve your charitable goals. There is no one “right” way, each specific situation should be planned accordingly with a customized solution.

[i] 2018 DAF Report,. National Philanthropic Trust

[ii] https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-tege/donor_advised_explanation_073108.pdf

 

[iii] https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/guidance/philanthropy/what-is-a-donor-advised-fund.html

 

Feel free to reach out to Danqin Fang if you have any questions by email: DFang@Evensky.com or phone: 305.448.8882 extension #222.

www.Evensky.com

 

Congress moves to make changes to US retirement system

David Garcia

David L. Garcia, CPA, CFP®, ADPA® Principal, Wealth Manager

Having made substantial changes to the US tax code at the end of 2017, Congress took a step closer to changing the US retirement system a few weeks ago. The House of Representatives passed the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act on May 23 by a large bipartisan margin of 417-3. The bill is expected to be taken up by the Senate later this year and would make some major changes to the US retirement system. What follows are some of the major provisions of the bill, which would be the most significant changes to the system since 2006.

  • Currently individuals are barred from contributing to their IRAs after age 70 1/2. The House bill would remove this limitation while also increasing the age when taxpayers are required to start taking taxable distributions from their IRAs from 70 ½ to 72.
  • The bill would make it easier for 401(k) plans to offer annuities by providing more liability protection to employers. This provision has been somewhat controversial, with some consumer advocates suggesting more protections for participants when negotiating annuity prices.
  • The bill would allow parents to withdraw up to $10,000 from 529 education-savings plans for repayment of student loans.
  • One of the biggest changes would affect people who inherit retirement accounts. The bill would require heirs to withdraw the money within a decade and pay any taxes due. The Senate version has a similar provision. Currently, beneficiaries can take much smaller taxable distributions over their own life spans.
  • The bill allows unrelated employers to create groups to offer a retirement plan. This is meant to encourage smaller firms to offer retirement plans.

Lawmakers say this could be only round one of legislation geared to increase retirement savings in the US, with more to come later in the year. Possible legislation may require companies of a certain size to offer retirement plans to their workers. The Senate is considering its own version of the House bill, called the Retirement Enhancement and Savings Act, or may just vote on the House version later this year. There is a real possibility a final bill could make its way to the president’s desk before year end.  EKFF will continue to monitor the progress of the legislation and its impact on our clients.

 

Feel free to contact David Garcia with any questions by phone 305.448.8882 ext. 224 or email: DGarcia@Evensky.com 

For more information on financial planning visit our website at www.Evensky.com

References:
Tergesen, Anne, and Richard Rubin. “House Passes Bill Making Big Changes to US Retirement System.” The Wall Street Journal, 23 May 2019, 6:32PM, www.wsj.com/articles/house-on-track-to-pass-bill-making-big-changes-to-u-s-retirement-system-11558625474.
O’Brien, Sarah. “The House Just Shook up Retirement Planning: Here’s What Could Happen to Your Savings.” NBC News, 24 May 2019, 1:18PM, www.nbcnews.com/business/retirement/here-s-what-new-retirement-bill-could-mean-you-n1010001.
“House Passes Bill That Would Bring Major Changes to US Retirement System.” CBS News, 24 May 2019, 12:12PM, www.cbsnews.com/news/secure-act-bipartisan-retirement-bill-clears-house/.

The December Rout

HRE PR Pic 2013

Harold Evensky CFP® , AIF® Chairman

 

 

 

 

 

In case you haven’t been paying attention, it’s been a bit rocky lately in the market, so I thought this might be a good time for a little recent history.

05-2019-18

05-2019-19

https://www.ft.com/content/73d3dd26-0ce0-11e9-acdc-4d9976f1533b

 

BLOOMBERG, DECEMBER 26, 2018, 10:23 AM

INVESTORS SCRAMBLE TO PULL CASH OUT OF MUTUAL FUNDS

Investors withdrew $56.2 billion from mutual funds during the week that ended Dec. 19, according to data from the Investment Company Institute. The mutual fund market hasn’t experienced a one-week outflow so large since October 2008.

Rout_03

REMEMBER THESE HEADLINES DURING THE “DECEMBER ROUT?”

We’re always preaching patience and long-term investing but we’re also well aware that scary headlines such as the ones above make it difficult to remain in the market when “experts” are warning that the world is coming to an end. So, I decided to track the daily headlines post-“Rout” to see how helpful the daily news might be for investors. I believe you’ll find the almost daily flip-flopping enlightening and it will persuade you to ignore the financial pornography and remain a patient long-term investor. Be sure to note the flip-flop between the red and green boxes, particularly the heavy ones.

Obviously I didn’t know where the market was going when I started this, but I haven’t been surprised that the media coverage followed the classic pattern below.

The moral is, next time you think you should make your investments decisions based on financial pornography and “breaking news,” reread the history below since the beginning of the “December Rout” and think twice before you bail out.

Investment success is based on time IN the market, NOT market timing!

Rout_04.png

Rout_05

Rout_06

Rout_07

Rout_08

Rout_14

Rout_15

Rout_16

Rout_17

Rout_18.png

Rout_19

Rout_20.png

 

FINALLY, AFTER READING THIS I THOUGHT YOU MIGHT ENJOY A BIT OF CREDIBLE OPTIMISM FROM WARREN BUFFETT

Buffett: Stocks are ‘virtually certain’ to rise in years ahead

‘Miraculous’ U.S. economy remains the engine, says Berkshire chief. He’s not worried.

Warren Buffett assured Berkshire Hathaway investors that they’re likely to continue seeing “substantial” investment gains, aided by what he describes as the long-running U.S. economic miracle.

“Our expectation is that investment gains will continue to be substantial—though totally random as to timing—and that these will supply significant funds for business purchases,” Buffett said in his annual letter to Berkshire

Naysayers may make money by pushing “gloomy” forecasts, he said, but “heaven help them if they act on the nonsense they peddle.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-stocks-are-virtually-certain-to-rise-in-years-ahead-2017-02-25

If you made  it this far, I hope you found it useful and this history lesson provides some comfort as we struggle (once again) through volatile markets. Just remember, patience pays and we’re here for you if you’d like to chat further.

Sincerely,

_HRE SIGNATURE

Harold Evensky

Chairman

Evensky & Katz / Foldes Financial Wealth Management

www.Evensky.com

 

 

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